MEANING OF TEN BAGGER --Discussion
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whiteheron02-03-2006, 08:17 PM
The definition of a TEN BAGGER is "a stock whose value increases ten times"
The expression was originated by Peter Lynch , one of the greatest investors of all time
So far , so good --- but nowhere can I find any really meangingful reference to the time period allowed to score a ten bagger
A year would seem most unlikely , except in the most extreme of cases
A decade maybe --- this would seem pretty damm good
Fifty years --- one would probably expect any reasonable stock to be a ten bagger in this time , given good returns , compounding , inflation etc
So a simplistic statement does not , in my opinion , address the matter fully ( and I wont be around for another 50 years for that option anyway )
So far I have been investing ( and trading ) for under 4 years and have achieved less than a handful of 2 to 3+ baggers , and one real " bugger "
I would like to hear what others have to say on this subject
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Halebop02-03-2006, 08:47 PM
As you allude, I think the term is irrelevent without a timeframe.
I've enjoyed just 1 ten bagger in 20+ years of investing. It might have been something more like a 20 or 30 bagger but took around a decade to realize and several additional purchases along the way muddied the final return calculations.
Given an "Oustanding" long term investment might generate 20% per annum, it's quite a reach to achieve a 10 bagger over even a decade. So I suspect the term just resonates more with an individual than actually being any useful benchmark.
If someone can beat some meaningful benchmarks like an index they should be well satisfied. My targets include beating the All Ords and NZX year on year, beating inflation and an absolute (positive) return.
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Mick10004-03-2006, 09:07 PM
I had one last yr and have another couple getting close - all from 2003 investments
I'm expecting 10 baggers to become as common as mud over the next 5-10 yrs for those people invested in resources
,
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Lawso10-03-2006, 06:11 PM
GEN - bought @ an average of 350, sold for 35. Clearly a 10 bugger [V]
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duncan macgregor10-03-2006, 06:33 PM
ONLY SHARE THAT SPRINGS TO MIND IS POISIDEN. A fifty cent share that went to over $230-00 and back again in the late sixties in Australia.
macdunk.
Ps i was to bloody smart to buy in to it YUCK.
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Dazza13-03-2006, 03:27 PM
CAZ
10 bagger there :P
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Sideshow Bob13-03-2006, 04:22 PM
Think the hardest thing would be not to sell before getting 10x the buy-in price.
Know I would take the money & run well before that!
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kittydashwood19-03-2006, 02:49 PM
Selling down incrementally leaves you a small final slice that can easy get to ten bags.XSNX was my most recent.
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Mick10011-04-2006, 07:21 PM
Got another one today
BSG - accumulated on the dips in 03, 04 and 05
,
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whiteheron11-04-2006, 07:29 PM
Mick 100
I have had a history of getting out of winners far too early
eg BSG , purchased about 30c and cashed in at 90c
Now trying hard to overcome this tendency --- but I suppose better to get out at a healthy profit than hang on to a loser and suffer a heavy loss
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Mick10011-04-2006, 07:47 PM
Yeah, the idea is to get a balance WH
I'v hung on to a couple of losers far too long, TRO, CRS
I'm beginning to appreciate good stable managment more than ever with regards to my speculative shares.
BSG have had their share of problems in the early days while their main stay operations were in Georgia But they always seem to manage to turn a bad situation into a good situation - I put that down to, not good luck but rather, good managment.
,
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whiteheron11-04-2006, 08:10 PM
My worst experience was with GTM (now CME )
Cost me plenty , but in this game the best lessons often cost !
On the other hand I have/have had some real winners eg AWE , BHP sold too early , EXS .
MMN has been pretty good too --- have bought and sold since around 10c
Now have 15,000 shares worth about $6,600 , at a cost of negative $2,400
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OldRider15-04-2006, 08:17 AM
There are apparently various ideas about what the "10 bagger" tag means, can I toss in the idea that it could be as much a reflection of poor investment decisions as good ones.
If we try to be aboard winners we should be buying stocks on a steady climb, if this is done it is difficult to ever reach a 10 bagger, where the criteria is total gain is divided by total cost, for the percentage gain deteriorates on further purchases.
An example from my statistics, AVM from an initial purchase under 10c has reached 10 bagger status, however, several additional purchases leaves it well down at round four times cost.
So while feeling good over a 10 bagger, reality could be a missed opportunity.
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Mick10015-04-2006, 02:22 PM
quote:Originally posted by OldRider
There are apparently various ideas about what the "10 bagger" tag means, can I toss in the idea that it could be as much a reflection of poor investment decisions as good ones.
If we try to be aboard winners we should be buying stocks on a steady climb, if this is done it is difficult to ever reach a 10 bagger, where the criteria is total gain is divided by total cost, for the percentage gain deteriorates on further purchases.
An example from my statistics, AVM from an initial purchase under 10c has reached 10 bagger status, however, several additional purchases leaves it well down at round four times cost.
So while feeling good over a 10 bagger, reality could be a missed opportunity.
Not so Old rider
My definition of 10 bagger is 10 times your average buy price
I bought BSG in three parcles
2003, parcle 1 @ 19c
2004, parcle 2 @ 26.5c
2005, parcle 3 @ 47c ( this was a small parcle)
average price of 26.1c
The moral of the story - buy right and sit tight
PS, I have another one getting close - will keep you informed
,
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OldRider15-04-2006, 05:13 PM
Mick100:
I guess you would be happier had you purchased an even larger parcel at 47c or even another later at a higher price, to have not reached 10 bagger status yet, but be better off, and viewing the investment as even better choice.
You may well be correct about my definition, nonetheless you confirmed my real point, that averaging up on a sound stock delays reaching 10 bagger status, but this does not reflect badly on the decisions.
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whiteheron15-04-2006, 08:13 PM
There are many ways to look at this matter in my opinion
As I see it , just because you average up ( a good strategy on a top class stock ) does not take away from having a 10 bagger on your first or early parcels purchased , with lesser baggers on subsequent parcels purchased
Hard learned lessons have taught me that averaging up is much smarter than averaging down
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Lawso17-04-2006, 10:51 AM
quote:Hard learned lessons have taught me that averaging up is much smarter than averaging down
Words of wisdom from whiteheron. Unless you've done the homework and are convinced that the company concerned is still sound, averaging down is a way of chucking good money after bad.
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davidrob02-05-2006, 09:20 PM
Hi guys,
Four quick reflections / ideas .
(1) Ten Bagger seeking (in a 12 month framework) ....imo.... can be potentially dangerous to long term compounding results....
(2) Interesting to compare compounding say 120% increases over an average of say 12 shares, rolled over a few times, and statisticaly comparing the average median result -- to attempting to get 12 individual "10 baggers".
(3) Agree with Mick.... that "stable" management.... is as important as stock selection, in mnay respects.
(4) I think.... what Mick is probably saying -- ??--- ....... Do correct me if I am wrong.... is that what Mick is saying ....is that "money management"..... is as important a "key skill set" to wealth through shares ......as is "stock picking"....
Kindest Regards,
Robbo:)
quote:Originally posted by Mick100
Yeah, the idea is to get a balance WH
I'v hung on to a couple of losers far too long, TRO, CRS
I'm beginning to appreciate good stable managment more than ever with regards to my speculative shares.
BSG have had their share of problems in the early days while their main stay operations were in Georgia But they always seem to manage to turn a bad situation into a good situation - I put that down to, not good luck but rather, good managment.
,
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Bel03-05-2006, 02:34 PM
quote:Originally posted by davidrob
(4) I think.... what Mick is probably saying -- ??--- ....... Do correct me if I am wrong.... is that what Mick is saying ....is that "money management"..... is as important a "key skill set" to wealth through shares ......as is "stock picking"....
:)
Well considering the stories of other apes picking stocks just as well as fund managers then i would definately agree that knowing money management is as equal to or more important than the actual stocks that are picked.
quote:Originally posted by Mick100
Yeah, the idea is to get a balance WH
I'v hung on to a couple of losers far too long, TRO, CRS
I'm beginning to appreciate good stable managment more than ever with regards to my speculative shares.
BSG have had their share of problems in the early days while their main stay operations were in Georgia But they always seem to manage to turn a bad situation into a good situation - I put that down to, not good luck but rather, good managment.
,
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belgarion03-05-2006, 06:16 PM
10-baggers come most often in ....
1) recovery stocks where fear is so bad you can smell it
2) small non-mainboard companies (have excluded private companies)
3) start-ups where the business model/product is so new that people just don't get it (these can also be small non-mainboard companies too)
4) and, of course, penny-dreadfuls ...
I like 1 and 3.
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Dazza27-05-2006, 12:13 AM
my CAZ 10 bagger, turned out to be a 1 bagger ><
have cashed in now.
ARUO - from 1 bagger to 0 bagger ><
still holding ARUO though.
Potential 10 baggers for me at this moment:
ARUO
EXT
AEX
WMEO
UNX
TOX
BRO
just like belg said,
bro is #3
tox is #1
and the uranium are well number 4 i guess :P
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trackers22-08-2006, 04:57 PM
I'll never achieve a 10 bagger..
I will achieve 10 1 baggers :)
work out 10k doubled 7 times ;)
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/archive/index.php?t-3344.html
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