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Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Thursday, 28 January 2010

AmResearch: Cyclical bull rally has not prematurely ended

AmResearch: Cyclical bull rally has not prematurely ended

Tags: AmResearch | corporate earnings | cyclical bull rally

Written by AmResearch
Thursday, 28 January 2010 14:30

KUALA LUMPUR: AmResearch Sdn Bhd believes there is more upside for the local stock market and from a fundamental standpoint; it does not think the cyclical bull rally in the market has prematurely ended.

It said on Thursday, Jan 28 that for Malaysia, it expects gross domestic product to rebound by 5.7% in the first quarter 2010 (1Q10) and rise by a further 4.7% in 2Q10 before moderating to below 3% in the last two quarters of this year - as the low base effect tapers off.

“Historically, market performance has been strongest when GDP accelerates, underpinning a macro backdrop for corporate earnings - to expand at an even faster pace than our current estimate of 25% for 2010 (2009: -2%),” it said.

AmResearch retains its fair value of 1,450 for the FBM KLCI, based on 2010’s PE of 16.5 times or one standard deviation above its mean of 14.5 times.

Market should trade above its long-term average because corporate earnings growth of 25% set to rise this year is already more than three times the historical average growth rate of just 7% per annum.

“This market correction, therefore, presents an opportunity to accumulate quality stocks,” it said, adding several “high-beta” stocks on its Buy list that have been sold down in recent days are CIMB, IJM Land, Tenaga Nasional, Ann Joo Resources, AirAsia, Unisem, MPI and Genting Group.

To recap, it said that in recent days, the market rally has been somewhat destabilised by policy tightening surprises in China where it again moved in to curb banks from lending.

The FBM KLCI retraced 43 points (down 3%) on Wednesday from its recent peak of 1,308 on Jan 21 with risk aversion resurfacing.

It said the issue was whether this correction signaled the beginning of a valuation de-rating or a transitory mid-cycle pullback due to profit taking after a strong start since early this year.

AmResearch said it appears unlikely that China’s policy tightening will undermine its economic growth (4Q GDP: 10.7%) and by extension, de-rail the global economic recovery already gathering pace. Its baseline view is that the macro momentum remains robust.

“We continue to believe that the cyclical economic upswing will be most significant in 1H 2010, given a depressed base last year,” it said.

For Malaysia, its analysis of previous earnings-driven rally from trough to peak - in 1998/1999 and 2001/2002 - also indicates that an uptrend has never been shorter than 12 months.

The rallies in 1998/1999 and 2001/2002 sustained for 16 months and 12 months; respectively. Corporate earnings rebounded by a strong 36% in 1999 after contracting 20% in 1998. In 2002, corporate earnings accelerated by 24%, from just 3% in 2001.

“We are only just 10 months from lows seen in March 2009, and corporate earnings are still expanding with upside bias. To be sure, the previous earnings-driven rally from trough to peak - in 1998/1999a and 2001/2002 - was also punctuated by three mid-cycle corrections. Pullback was transitory, stretching no longer than two months. Dips were 15% to 22% off intermittent highs,” it said.

AmResearch said a 15% pullback from the market’s recent high of 1,308 means that it might form a base at 1,112 (or a 2010’s price-to-earnings of 12.8 times), implying a potential downside risk of 12% from the current 1,265.

However, the flipside is that the market will correct to 1,112, if it materialises. This would imply that an earnings-driven rebound to our fair value of 1,450 would also produce an attractive potential return of 30%, outweighing a downside risk of 12%.

“Thus, even though trading conditions might remain volatile at least until concern of policy risk dissipates, the upside potential is greater than downside risk,” it said.

It remained committed to its view that profit drivers - particularly for cyclicals - auto, banks, CONSTRUCTION [], property, transport and TECHNOLOGY [] and media are solidifying as end-demand and margin recovery kick-in to accentuate an earnings rebound.

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My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Thursday, 28 January 2010

AmResearch: Cyclical bull rally has not prematurely ended

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All equity security investments present a risk of loss of capital

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Benjamin Graham

Sell the losers, let the winners run.

Investment Style

Warren Buffett

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