Guinness

Date Announced 4th Aug 2010
Quarter 30/06/2010 Qtr 4
FYE 30/06/2010

STOCK  GUINESS 
C0DE  3255

Price $ 8.68
Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 17.17
Curr. DY 5.18%

Rec. qRev 308713 q-q % chg -17% y-y% chq 12%
Rec qPbt 48010 q-q % chg -23% y-y% chq 26%
Rec. qEps 11.81 q-q % chg -23% y-y% chq 30%
ttm-Eps 50.54 q-q % chg 6% y-y% chq 8%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5%
Avg.H PE 14.00
Avg. L PE 12.00

Current price is at Upper 1/3 of valuation zone.
RISK: Upside 16% Downside 84%
One Year Appreciation Potential 1% Avg. yield 7%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return over next 5 years 7%

CPE/SPE 1.32
P/NTA 5.56
Sig. PE 13
Rational Pr 6.57


Decision: 
Already Owned:  Buy Hold Sell Filed
Review (future acq):  Filed
Discard:  Filed
Guide: Valuation zones:   Lower 1/3 Buy Mid. 1/3 Maybe Upper 1/3 Sell

Aim: 
To Buy a bargain:. Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss:  Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years:   Seek for ANNUAL POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%.
To Prevent Loss:   Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain:    Sell and Replace when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr