Date announced 16/11/2010
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 1 FYE 30/06/2011
STOCK HLBank C0DE 5819
Price $ 9.55 Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 13.70 Curr. DY 2.51%
LFY Div 24.00 DPO ratio 35%
ROE 14.9% PBT Margin 58.8% PAT Margin 47.6%
Rec. qRev 539787 q-q % chg 4% y-y% chq 5%
Rec qPbt 317381 q-q % chg -8% y-y% chq 10%
Rec. qEps 17.72 q-q % chg -15% y-y% chq 10%
ttm-Eps 69.73 q-q % chg 2% y-y% chq 13%
Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 12.00 Avg. L PE 10.00
Forecast High Pr 10.68 Forecast Low Pr 8.31 Recent Severe Low Pr 8.31
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.
RISK: Upside 48% Downside 52%
One Year Appreciation Potential 2% Avg. yield 3%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 6%
CPE/SPE 1.25 P/NTA 2.04 NTA 4.69 SPE 11.00 Rational Pr 7.67
Decision:
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed Review (future acq): Filed Discard: Filed
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy Mid. 1/3 Maybe Upper 1/3 Sell
Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr
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