myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Thursday, 7 November 2013

Listing to solidify Karex’s position as market leader

by Ronnie Teo, ronnieteo@theborneopost.com. Posted on October 23, 2013, Wednesday

KUCHING: The upcoming listing of Karex Bhd (Karex) on the main bourse of Bursa Malaysia will see the group garnering an approximate market capitalisation of RM635 million, based on RM2.35 per share.

According to analyst Kevin Wong from HwangDBS Vickers Research Sdn Bhd (HwangDBS Research), this was on the back of the group already coveting about 10 per cent of global market share.

“Karex is expanding production capacity from three billion to six billion pieces by the end of 2015,” Wong outlined in HwangDBS Research’s initiation coverage report. “This could boost the group’s earnings, supported by a large global market for condoms (circa 23 billion pieces in 2012), with global demand expected to increase annually and reach 30.4 billion pieces by 2016.”

Owned by the Goh family, Karex has been running the condom manufacturing business since late 1980’s. Condom sales contribute about 90 per cent of group revenues, which is derived from three principal markets: commercial (60 per cent of FY13 condom sales), tender (36 per cent) and own brand manufacturing (four per cent).

Currently, it has three plants in Klang, Pontian and Hat Yai (Thailand) with a total manufacturing capacity of three billion pieces per annum, or 10.5 per cent of global condom output in 2012.

Goh noted that the higher consumption of condoms will largely be driven by ongoing efforts and procurement by governments or non-government organisations (NGOs) to curb sexually transmitted diseases and support family planning initiatives in tandem with steady global population growth.

“Condoms are generally demand inelastic, and have little correlation with GDP growth or consumer purchasing power because they are considered an essential and are small ticket items. We forecast 2-year net profit CAGR of 29 per cent premised on rising output from 2.4 billion pieces in FY13 to 3.6 billion pieces in FY15.”

Meanwhile, RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHB Research) said the listing will solidify Karex’s position as the world’s largest condom maker, as well as widen the gap between the company and its closest global competitor, Thai Nippon Rubber Industry Co Ltd, by two billion pieces.

“There will also be more growth opportunities in tender market. Due to limited government funding for family planning in some developing countries, organisations such as the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and United States Agency for Development (USAID) have started programmes to distribute condoms free of charge or at subsidised cost,” RHB Research outlined.

“This would likely benefit Karex as UNFPA and USAID are established customers. We also expect more potential contracts in the pipeline.”

RHB Research estimated core earnings for financial years 2013 (FY13) to FY15 forecasts compound annual growth rate (CAGR) earnings of 28.3 per cent, with revenue forecasted to reach RM289 million in FY14F from RM339 million in FY15F.

“Given the better economies of scale and an improving customer mix, we expect the company’s net margin to widen to 13.6 per cent in FY14F from 12.5 per cent in FY13,” it added. “We forecast core earnings of RM39.5 million and RM47.8 million for FY14F and FY15F respectively.”

After initiating coverage, RHB Research valued Karex at RM2.59 per share, based on a target 16 times of the price to earnings ratio (P/E) for calendar year 2014 (CY14).

Meanwhile, HwangDBS Research pegged a fair value of RM2.35 per share for Karex, based on a 0.5 times CY14 P/E to growth ratio, which is the firm’s preferred valuation method to capture Karex’s robust future growth potential.

Read more: http://www.theborneopost.com/2013/10/23/listing-to-solidify-karexs-position-as-market-leader/#ixzz2jyDEtdwa

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My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Thursday, 7 November 2013

Listing to solidify Karex’s position as market leader

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All equity security investments present a risk of loss of capital

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Benjamin Graham

Sell the losers, let the winners run.

Investment Style

Warren Buffett

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