Showing posts with label Margin of Safety. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Margin of Safety. Show all posts

Wednesday 8 February 2012

7 Important Stock Investing Advice from Warren Buffett!


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Summarized Overview

In this article, you’ll find information on the stock investing ideas that Warren Buffet wants all stock investors to know, strategy he uses to maximize return, price of stocks that he willing to pay, key financial ratio that is so important to him, type of managers he loves, and kind of management he trusts.

7 Stock Investing Advices for Beginners

This stock market investing advice will help you on how to pick stocks Warren Buffet way.

Stock Investing Advices #1: Simple Business Model

You must understand the business itself or at least like and use it. Warren Buffett likes to patronize/use Nike, Coke and Gillette products and he is a believer of his investments. Have time to read and study the business model and the financial reports that takes only 2-3 hours per day. Invest as if you will buy the business.

Do you know why this is so important?

When come to investing, predicting what will happen tomorrow is something that you can’t live without. Forecasting what the future will be is the only way you can estimate how much return you’ll be getting later on. So, if you really understand the business inside out, you can project how the company performs 30 years down the road; take into consideration the national economy, competition from others and change in customers’ lifestyle.

Most companies here in Philippines have investor relation’s page in their websites where you can browse their financial reports.

Stock Investing Advices #2: Wide Economic Moat

In simple terms, it must dominate its market and can somehow dictate its product’s prices. Warren Buffet himself avoids regulated industries, commodity businesses as well as capital intensive industries. Look out Nike, it has its own market around the world and it can dictate its own product prices regardless of its competition because people buy Nike for its brand. Further, company should finance its capital from operating cash flow and not depending on borrowings. That is why, Warren Buffet love ‘franchise’, for example, Furniture Mart (the lowest cost in the industry), The Washington Post (market dominance and leader), Coke (strong brand name) and Candies (premium priced and high quality products that serve niche market).

How about Jollibee or Meralco here in our country?

Stock Investing Advices #3: Sustainable Growth

Serving the existing niche market is not enough. Instead, Warren Buffet wants the company to grow continuously and exponentially. Therefore, he looks for managements that have the ability to widen their economic moat consistently over the past years. Their businesses must be positioned where the demand able to grow continuously; Gillette is his best example. In the same time, always be ready for any possible trouble to the business, and most importantly back up your investment plan!

Have you heard of the recent plans of San Miguel Corporation and Metro Pacific Investment Corporation?

Stock Investing Advices #4: Excellent Capital Management

The Management should utilize the available resources for the highest return to the company and to its shareholders. Shareholders should be benefited for their investments thru dividends. Management carries the trust of the shareholders, thus, they should act and think as owners too. Moreover, it is better if the management holds a huge number of stocks too, since they will act as true owners and will not think short term but instead, will make sure that the company earns in the next 20 years or more!

Stock Investing Advices #5: Effective Management Team

Invest in company that has honest and capable managers. They should be so capable that Warren Buffet himself admires the way the managers do things. In Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting year 2000, he once said, “we want managers who tell the truth and tell themselves the truth, which is more important”. He loves cost conscious and frugal type of managers who are honest and integrity as well.

Stock Investing Advices #6: Superior ROE

The general rule that it is above 15! Why ROE, and not the other financial ratios? Well,return on equity indicates how effective the management team converts the reinvested money into cash. The higher the return, the more profitably the company can reinvest its earnings. The faster the company able to turn the reinvested earnings into profits, the faster its value increases from one year to another. And mind you, it is a big challenge to the management to consistently create value for every penny they spend. To prove this, not many stocks that has 15 per cent ROE consistently for the past 20 or 30 years, worldwide.

Stock Investing Advices #7: Buy at Discount Price

After the process of selection, now is the time to buy them! But of course make sure it is below the intrinsic value and you must have the margin safety of 80% discount from the calculated intrinsic value. Warren Buffet has to make sure he buys the stock at the lowest price possible. Have you heard the recent investment of Mr. Buffett on IBM and in these times of Euro and US Debt Crisis? In the same time, he has to be real that not to set very low price till he misses the golden opportunity. Even if the stocks are so profitable but the price is too high, he will just passes the opportunity to somebody else.

If you want to be as successful as Warren Buffet in stock investing, study each point thoroughly. Ignoring either one advice is enough to make you broke in stock market; simply because, in stock investing, due diligence counts.

Intentionally not following the advice proves that you are not ready for investing;perhaps you are just looking for fast cash.



http://www.investorluranski.com/2011/11/7-important-stock-investing-advices.html#more


Saturday 4 February 2012

Can You Sum Up Your Investing Philosophy in 10 Words?



Associated Press
Abraham Lincoln in 1858
In a speech to the Wisconsin State Agricultural Society in Milwaukee on Sept. 30, 1859, Abraham Lincoln told this anecdote:
“It is said an Eastern monarch once charged his wise men to invent him a sentence, to be ever in view, and which should be true and appropriate in all times and situations. They presented him the words:And this, too, shall pass away.’ How much it expresses! How chastening in the hour of pride!—how consoling in the depths of affliction! ‘And this, too, shall pass away.’  And yet let us hope it is not quite true.”
I was recently reminded of Lincoln’s wonderful speech when someone asked me if I could summarize my investing beliefs in no more than 10 words. I laughed and said, “Of course not!”
But right afterward, I realized to my surprise that I could. I banged this out almost instantly:
Anything is possible, and the unexpected is inevitable. Proceed accordingly.
I asked some leading investors and financial thinkers for their own contributions.  Here are a few:
Determine value.  Then buy low, sell high.  ;-)
—David Herro, chief investment officer for international equities, Harris Associates, and manager of Oakmark International Fund
If everybody wants it, I don’t. Avoid crowds.
—Gus Sauter, chief investment officer, the Vanguard Group
Other people are smarter than you think they are.  Index.
—Laurence B. Siegel, research director, Research Foundation of the CFA Institute
Risk means more things can happen than will happen.
—Elroy Dimson, expert on long-term stock returns, London Business School, and co-author, “Triumph of the Optimists”
Invest for the long term and ignore interim aggravation.
– Charles D. Ellis, director, Greenwich Associates, and author, “Winning the Loser’s Game”
100% of business value depends on the future.
—Bill Miller, chairman and chief investment officer, Legg Mason Capital Management
Plan for the worst. Hope for the best.
—Robert Rodriguez, managing partner, First Pacific Advisors
Control what you can: your savings rate, costs, and taxes.
– Don Phillips, president, fund research, Morningstar
In the end, you cannot take your investments with you.
– Meir Statman, finance professor, Santa Clara University, and author, “What Investors Really Want”
The less portfolio management costs, the more you earn.
—Burton Malkiel, professor of economics emeritus, Princeton University, and author of “A Random Walk on Wall Street”
Own competently managed, competitively advantaged businesses at discounted prices.
—O. Mason Hawkins, chairman and chief executive officer, Southeastern Asset Management
Do the math. Expect catastrophes. Whatever happens, stay the course.
– William J. Bernstein, Efficient Frontier Advisors, and author, “The Four Pillars of Investing”
Fallible, emotional people determine price; cold, hard cash determines value.
—Christopher C. Davis, chairman, Davis Advisors and co-manager, Davis New York Venture Fund
New submissions are also coming in:
Save. Invest long-term. Compounding returns builds. Compounding costs destroys. Courage!
–John C. Bogle, founder, the Vanguard Group
Are you smarter than the average professional investor? Probably not.
– William F. Sharpe, emeritus professor of finance, Stanford University, and Nobel Laureate in economics
Finally, it’s worth remembering that the great investing analyst Benjamin Graham engaged in a similar exercise (also evoking Lincoln’s tale) but came in seven words under our maximum:
In the old legend the wise men finally boiled down the history of mortal affairs into the single phrase, ‘This too will pass.” Confronted with a like challenge to distill the secret of sound investment into three words, we venture the motto, MARGIN OF SAFETY.”
—Benjamin Graham, “The Intelligent Investor,” Chapter 20.
In the spirit of Lincoln’s classic anecdote, can you sum up your investing philosophy in no more than 10 words that you believe will be “true and appropriate in all times and situations”?

http://blogs.wsj.com/totalreturn/2012/01/27/can-you-sum-up-your-investing-philosophy-in-10-words/?mod=WSJBlog&mod=totalreturn

Saturday 21 January 2012

Margin of Safety Concept in The Business Venture of Making Profits from Security Purchases and Sales


To Sum Up

Investment is most intelligent when it is most businesslike. It is amazing to see how many capable businessmen try to operate in Wall Street with complete disregard of all the sound principles through which they have gained success in their own undertakings.

Yet every corporate security may best be viewed, in the first instance, as an ownership interest in, or a claim against, a specific business enterprise. And if a person sets out to make profits from security purchases and sales, he is embarking on a business venture of his own, which must be run in accordance with accepted business principles if it is to have a chance of success.

The first and most obvious of these principles is, “Know what you are doing—know your business.” For the investor this means: Do not try to make “business profits” out of securities—that is, returns in excess of normal interest and dividend income—unless you know as much about security values as you would need to know about the value of merchandise that you proposed to manufacture or deal in.

A second business principle: “Do not let anyone else run your business, unless (1) you can supervise his performance with adequate care and comprehension or (2) you have unusually strong reasons for placing implicit confidence in his integrity and ability.” For the investor this rule should determine the conditions under which he will permit someone else to decide what is done with his money.

A third business principle: “Do not enter upon an operation— that is, manufacturing or trading in an item—unless a reliable calculation shows that it has a fair chance to yield a reasonable profit.  In particular, keep away from ventures in which you have little to gain and much to lose.” For the enterprising investor this means that his operations for profit should be based not on optimism but on arithmetic. For every investor it means that when he limits his return to a small figure—as formerly, at least, in a conventional bond or preferred stock—he must demand convincing evidence that he is not risking a substantial part of his principal.

A fourth business rule is more positive: “Have the courage of your knowledge and experience. If you have formed a conclusion from the facts and if you know your judgment is sound, act on it—even though others may hesitate or differ.” (You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. You are right because your data and reasoning are right.) Similarly, in the world of securities, courage becomes the supreme virtue after adequate knowledge and a tested judgment are at hand.

Fortunately for the typical investor, it is by no means necessary for his success that he bring these qualities to bear upon his program—provided he limits his ambition to his capacity and confines his activities within the safe and narrow path of standard, defensive investment. To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks.


Ref:  The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham

CHAPTER 20  “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment



Also read:

Margin of Safety Concept in Conventional and Unconventional Investments


 Extension of the Concept of Investment

To complete our discussion of the margin-of-safety principle we must now make a further distinction between conventional and unconventional investments. 

Conventional investments are appropriate for the typical portfolio. 
  • Under this heading have always come United States government issues and high-grade, dividend paying common stocks. 
  • We have added state and municipal bonds for those who will benefit sufficiently by their tax-exempt features. 
  • Also included are first-quality corporate bonds when, as now, they can be bought to yield sufficiently more than United States savings bonds.


Unconventional investments are those that are suitable only for the enterprising investorThey cover a wide range. 
  • The broadest category is that of undervalued common stocks of secondary companies, which we recommend for purchase when they can be bought at two-thirds or less of their indicated value. 
  • Besides these, there is often a wide choice of medium-grade corporate bonds and preferred stocks when they are selling at such depressed prices as to be obtainable also at a considerable discount from their apparent value. 
  • In these cases the average investor would be inclined to call the securities speculative, because in his mind their lack of a first quality rating is synonymous with a lack of investment merit.


It is our argument that a sufficiently low price can turn a security of mediocre quality into a sound investment opportunity—provided that the buyer is informed and experienced and that he practices adequate diversification. 
  • For, if the price is low enough to create a substantial margin of safety, the security thereby meets our criterion of investment. 
  • Our favorite supporting illustration is taken from the field of real-estate bonds. 
  • In the 1920s, billions of dollars’ worth of these issues were sold at par and widely recommended as sound investments. A large proportion had so little margin of value over debt as to be in fact highly speculative in character. 
  • In the depression of the 1930s an enormous quantity of these bonds defaulted their interest, and their price collapsed—in some cases below 10 cents on the dollar. 
  • At that stage the same advisers who had recommended them at par as safe investments were rejecting them as paper of the most speculative and unattractive type. 
  • But as a matter of fact the price depreciation of about 90% made many of these securities exceedingly attractive and reasonably safe—for the true values behind them were four or five times the market quotation.*


The fact that the purchase of these bonds actually resulted in what is generally called “a large speculative profit” did not prevent them from having true investment qualities at their low prices. 
  • The “speculative” profit was the purchaser’s reward for having made an unusually shrewd investment. 
  • They could properly be called investment opportunities, since a careful analysis would have shown that the excess of value over price provided a large margin of safety. 
  • Thus the very class of “fair-weather investments” which we stated above is a chief source of serious loss to naive security buyers is likely to afford many sound profit opportunities to the sophisticated operator who may buy them later at pretty much his own price.†


The whole field of “special situations” would come under our definition of investment operations, because the purchase is always predicated on a thoroughgoing analysis that promises a larger realization than the price paid.  Again there are risk factors in each individual case, but these are allowed for in the calculations and absorbed in the overall results of a diversified operation.

To carry this discussion to a logical extreme, we might suggest that a defensible investment operation could be set up by buying such intangible values as are represented by a group of  “commonstock option warrants” selling at historically low prices. (This example is intended as somewhat of a shocker.)* 
  • The entire value of these warrants rests on the possibility that the related stocks may some day advance above the option price. 
  • At the moment they have no exercisable value. 
  • Yet, since all investment rests on reasonable future expectations, it is proper to view these warrants in terms of the mathematical chances that some future bull market will create a large increase in their indicated value and in their price. 
  • Such a study might well yield the conclusion that there is much more to be gained in such an operation than to be lost and that the chances of an ultimate profit are much better than those of an ultimate loss. 
  • If that is so, there is a safety margin present even in this unprepossessing security form. 
  • A sufficiently enterprising investor could then include an option-warrant operation in his miscellany of unconventional investments.1




* Graham is saying that there is no such thing as a good or bad stock; there are only cheap stocks and expensive stocks. Even the best company becomes a “sell” when its stock price goes too high, while the worst company is worth buying if its stock goes low enough. 

† The very people who considered technology and telecommunications stocks a “sure thing” in late 1999 and early 2000, when they were hellishly overpriced, shunned them as “too risky” in 2002—even though, in Graham’s exact words from an earlier period, “the price depreciation of about 90% made many of these securities exceedingly attractive and reasonably safe.” Similarly, Wall Street’s analysts have always tended to call a stock a “strong buy” when its price is high, and to label it a “sell” after its price has fallen—the exact opposite of what Graham (and simple common sense) would dictate. As he does throughout the book, Graham is distinguishing speculation—or buying on the hope that a stock’s price will keep going up—from investing, or buying on the basis of what the underlying business is worth.

* Graham uses “common-stock option warrant” as a synonym for “warrant,” a security issued directly by a corporation giving the holder a right to purchase the company’s stock at a predetermined price. Warrants have been almost entirely superseded by stock options. Graham quips that he intends the example as a “shocker” because, even in his day, warrants were regarded as one of the market’s seediest backwaters. (See the commentary on Chapter 16.)


Ref:  The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham

Margin of Safety Concept in Speculation and Investment

A Criterion of Investment versus Speculation

Since there is no single definition of investment in general acceptance, authorities have the right to define it pretty much as they please.

  • Many of them deny that there is any useful or dependable difference between the concepts of investment and of speculation. 
  • We think this skepticism is unnecessary and harmful. 
  • It is injurious because it lends encouragement to the innate leaning of many people toward the excitement and hazards of stock-market speculation. 
  • We suggest that the margin-of-safety concept may be used to advantage as the touchstone to distinguish an investment operation from a speculative one.


Probably most speculators believe they have the odds in their favor when they take their chances, and therefore they may lay claim to a safety margin in their proceedings.
  • Each one has the feeling that the time is propitious for his purchase, or that his skill is superior to the crowd’s, or that his adviser or system is trustworthy. 
  • But such claims are unconvincing. 
  • They rest on subjective judgment, unsupported by any body of favorable evidence or any conclusive line of reasoning. 
  • We greatly doubt whether the man who stakes money on his view that the market is heading up or down can ever be said to be protected by a margin of safety in any useful sense of the phrase.


By contrast, the investor’s concept of the margin of safety—as developed earlier in this chapter—rests upon simple and definite arithmetical reasoning from statistical data.
  • We believe, also, that it is well supported by practical investment experience. 
  • There is no guarantee that this fundamental quantitative approach will continue to show favorable results under the unknown conditions of the future. 
  • But, equally, there is no valid reason for pessimism on this score.



Thus, in sum, we say that to have a true investment there must be present a true margin of safety. And a true margin of safety is one that can be demonstrated by figures, by persuasive reasoning, and by reference to a body of actual experience.


Ref:  The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham

CHAPTER 20  “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment



Also read:

Margin of Safety Concept in Diversification

Theory of Diversification

There is a close logical connection between the concept of a safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. 
  • Even with a margin in the investor’s favor, an individual security may work out badly. 
  • For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance for profit than for loss—not that loss is impossible. 
  • But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. 
  • That is the simple basis of the insurance-underwriting business.


Diversification is an established tenet of conservative investment. By accepting it so universally, investors are really demonstrating their acceptance of the margin-of-safety principle, to which diversification is the companion.

This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette.

If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose.
  • He has a “negative margin of safety.” 
  • In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. 
But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35.
  • Then he would have a small but important margin of safety
  • Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. 
  • (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with 0 and 00.)*


* In “American” roulette, most wheels include 0 and 00 along with numbers1 through 36, for a total of 38 slots. The casino offers a maximum payout of 35 to 1. What if you bet $1 on every number? Since only one slot can be the one into which the ball drops, you would win $35 on that slot, but lose $1 on each of your other 37 slots, for a net loss of $2. That $2 difference (or a 5.26% spread on your total $38 bet) is the casino’s “house advantage,” ensuring that, on average, roulette players will always lose more than they win. 
  • Just as it is in the roulette player’s interest to bet as seldom as possible, it is in the casino’s interest to keep the roulette wheel spinning.  
  • Likewise, the intelligent investor should seek to maximize the number of holdings that offer “a better chance for profit than for loss.” 
  • For most investors, diversification is the simplest and cheapest way to widen your margin of safety.




Ref:  The Intelligent Investor

Friday 20 January 2012

Margin of Safety Concept in Undervalued or Bargain Securities


The margin-of-safety idea becomes much more evident when we apply it to the field of undervalued or bargain securities. 
  • We have here, by definition, a favorable difference between price on the one hand and indicated or appraised value on the other. 
  • That difference is the safety margin. It is available for absorbing the effect of miscalculations or worse than average luck. 
  • The buyer of bargain issues places particular emphasis on the ability of the investment to withstand adverse developments. 
  • For in most such cases he has no real enthusiasm about the company’s prospects.


True, if the prospects are definitely bad the investor will prefer to avoid the security no matter how low the price. 

But the field of undervalued issues is drawn from the many concerns—perhaps a majority of the total—for which the future appears neither distinctly promising nor distinctly unpromising. 
  • If these are bought on a bargain basis, even a moderate decline in the earning power need not prevent the investment from showing satisfactory results. 
  • The margin of safety will then have served its proper purpose.



Ref:  The Intelligent Investors by Benjamin Graham

Margin of Safety Concept in Growth Stocks


The philosophy of investment in growth stocks parallels in part and in part contravenes the margin-of-safety principle.
  • The growth-stock buyer relies on an expected earning power that is greater than the average shown in the past.
  • Thus he may be said to substitute these expected earnings for the past record in calculating his margin of safety.
  • In investment theory there is no reason why carefully estimated future earnings should be a less reliable guide than the bare record of the past; in fact, security analysis is coming more and more to prefer a competently executed evaluation of the future.
  • Thus the growth-stock approach may supply as dependable a margin of safety as is found in the ordinary investment— provided the calculation of the future is conservatively made, and provided it shows a satisfactory margin in relation to the price paid.

The danger in a growth-stock program lies precisely here.
  • For such favored issues the market has a tendency to set prices that will not be adequately protected by a conservative projection of future earnings.
  • (It is a basic rule of prudent investment that all estimates, when they differ from past performance, must err at least slightly on the side of understatement.)



The margin of safety is always dependent on the price paid.
  • It will be large at one price, small at some higher price, nonexistent at some still higher price.
  • If, as we suggest, the average market level of most growth stocks is too high to provide an adequate margin of safety for the buyer, then a simple technique of diversified buying in this field may not work out satisfactorily.  
  • special degree of foresight and judgment will be needed, in order that wise individual selections may overcome the hazards inherent in the customary market level of such issues as a whole.