The Four Filters Invention of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger

Charlie Munger, the Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway mentions their "4 Investing Filters".

1. Understand the Business
2. Sustainable Competitive Advantages
3. Able and Trustworthy Managers
4. Bargain Price = Margin of Safety


"It is a very simple set of ideas and the reason that our idea has not spread faster is that they are too simple."


The QMV or QVM approach:

Q = Quality
M = Management
V = Valuation

Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits and Other Writings

Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits and Other Writings
by Philip A. Fisher

You can ignore this book, but only at your PERIL!!!!, March 9, 2007

Having been associated with Wall Street for 35 years, I was lucky enough to have been in the same room with Philip Fisher on more than one occasion. He was a completely self-contained man, extremely comfortable in his own skin. He knew who he was, what he was, and what he could be. He possessed zero airs about him. These traits seem to run freely in many MASTER investors, including Warren Buffett .

Many have mentioned that Buffett considers himself to be 85% Benjamin Graham, and 15% Philip Fisher. This needs to be updated. If you spoke with Buffett today, he would tell you that those ratios are distorted, and the reason is Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's investing partner at Berkshire Hathaway.

Charlie Munger is cut from the same cloth as Philip Fisher. They are growth players, and willing to pay up for a stock. For decades Buffett could NEVER PAY UP for a stock. He wanted them dirt cheap, so cheap in fact that some big plays got away from him forever. I don't know how many years ago, Buffett mentioned in a meeting I attended that he once owned a considerable amount of Disney. It would be a controlling amount in today's market; it got away from him, and tens of billions of dollars in that play alone.

In the old days when Buffett was strictly Graham and Dodd, he could not buy a GROWTH stock. He still cringes at the thought. Munger however taught Buffett to pay up. An example was Flight Safety International for which Buffett paid a previously unheard price-earning ratio. There are people around Buffett who know him well who will tell you that Munger is the superior investor. What you need to know is that sometimes stocks are DIRT CHEAP because they are DIRT, to use a Munger line.

Philip Fisher like Munger is a MASTER INVESTOR worthy of spending whatever time you can spare studying. If you want to walk in the footsteps of a MASTER, you must study the MASTER, and Fisher has a tremendous amount to offer.

I have managed billions of dollars in my lifetime. I am telling you this because you need to know that the SKUTTLEBUTT method that Fisher is famous for is something that anyone can used, starting today. Most of Wall Street research or any research that I have seen over the decades is not worth the paper it is printed on. On more than one occasion I have asked if the paper is soft enough to use for toilet paper.

With the scuttlebutt method, you talk to everyone but the company you are studying. Please allow me to illustrate. If you are thinking of investing in a car company, you start visiting car dealers. You learn the lingo, you read trade periodicals, maybe even a few car magazines, but be careful. Magazines and newspapers are completely jaded in their reporting by how much advertising dollars they receive from certain companies. You didn't know that because no one will ever dare print it.

If a newspaper wants to bury an important story on a company that gives them tremendous advertising dollars, they will run the unfavorable story, but it will be in the Saturday morning edition, which is the least read edition of the week. You need to know these things. I used Scuttlebutt back in the 80's, to accumulate a massive position in Chrysler when it was near bankruptcy. The stock went from $6 to $200 after splits. It isn't hard. You don't need to be a big market player, anybody really can do it.

You do need an inquisitive mind, and I believe an innovative one as well. Fisher was a guy who thought outside the box, and that's why he was immensely rich, as is his son Ken. Philip Fisher is a guy that made a fortune in FMC Corporation, owned it for 30 or more years. He was a ground floor player in Texas Instruments, owned it and made thousands of percent on the stock. He was every bit Buffett's equal, and to Fisher's credit, he gave us the greatest gift of all. He wrote a book, and was open with his readers about how to attain great wealth in the market.

He takes the "Efficient Market Hypothesis" (EMT), and blows it out of the water. His returns and Buffett's are so many standard deviations away from the mean, that EMT can't survive an investigation based on their results.

He gives you a 15-point criteria list to identify the types of companies that meet his screening. He also gives you five don'ts, and then five more to protect you as an investor. What Fisher is really doing is giving you a TEMPLATE to used as an investor. This is what you need. This is no different than going into the Marine Corps, and spending 12 weeks in basic training. Once you're done, you have certain smart behaviors drilled into your psyche so deep that in combat, and investing is combat, you can fall back on these techniques to survive. They become automatic. No matter what investment turns up, you can put it through the filters that have stood the test of time.

In closing, I would like to say one more thing about the Scuttlebutt technique. Recently, I had to make a decision to invest a considerable amount of money in the auto sector. One of the people I consulted with, is a legend in his 90's, who is the greatest mutual fund investor of the 20th century, probably worth over a billion dollars. He says to me in passing, do you know whom Toyota, the greatest car company in the world fears? The answer is the South Korean car companies. That my friends is worth a fortune, and is a 20 year stock play that Philip Fisher would have envied.

http://www.stocksatbottom.com/common_stocks_and_uncommon_profits_philip_a_fisher.html

Charlie Munger's 10 Rules for Investment Success

By Morgan Housel
December 13, 2007

  Those of you lucky enough to attend a Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A) (NYSE: BRK-B) annual shareholder meeting have undoubtedly heard Charlie Munger say, "I have nothing to add."
In reality, the guy has quite a bit to add. Thankfully for us, Munger is almost as forthcoming with his investment thoughts as his pal Warren Buffett. In his must-read book, Poor Charlie's Almanac, Munger puts forth a 10-step checklist that even the most inexperienced investors could benefit from.
 
1. Measure risk All investment evaluations should begin by measuring risk, especially reputational.
It's crucially important to understand that from time to time, your investments won't turn out the way you wanted. To protect your portfolio, don't set yourself up for complete failure in the first place. Giving yourself a large margin of safety, avoiding people of questionable character, and only taking on risk when you can be sure you'll be satisfactorily rewarded are all steps in the right direction. Companies like Chipotle (NYSE: CMG) might have perfectly bright futures, but when their shares are priced for perfection, they might nonetheless prove too risky for savvy investors.
 
2. Be independent Only in fairy tales are emperors told they're naked.
With stockbrokers often rewarded for activity, not successful investments, it's critically important to make sure you believe that what you're doing is right. Chasing others' opinions may seem logical, but investors like Munger and Buffett often succeed by going against the grain. Big Berkshire investments such as Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), and more recently Petrochina (NYSE: PTR), were largely ignored by the masses when they were first made.
 
3. Prepare ahead The only way to win is to work, work, work, and hope to have a few insights.
It shouldn't surprise you that the best investments aren't the ones we typically read about in the paper. The diamonds in the rough are out there, but finding them requires effort. Buffett reads thousands of annual reports to cultivate ideas -- even if he only comes up with a few candidates each year. Munger advocates a constant curiosity for nearly everything in life. If you never stop asking the "whys" in what you do, you won't have trouble staying motivated.

 

4. Have intellectual humility Acknowledging what you don't know is the dawning of wisdom.
Perhaps most crucially to Berkshire's success, its leaders never stray away from their comfort zones. In investing, a clear idea of what the business will look like in the future counts most. If you struggle to comprehend what the business does today, you might as well be throwing darts. While companies like Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) and Boston Scientific (NYSE: BSX) are certainly titans in their own right today, they might look drastically different in five to 10 years.

5. Analyze rigorously Use effective checklists to minimize errors and omissions.
The numbers don't lie. When researching investments, Buffett and Munger like to try to estimate the security's worth before they even look at its price. They are businessmen, not stock-market junkies. They focus their brainpower on the value of businesses, not convoluted economic forecasts or intricate market-timing techniques. Munger is incredibly brilliant, but the analytical rigor of his investment decisions is based around simplicity, not complexity.

6. Allocate assets wisely Proper allocation of capital is an investor's No. 1 job.
In the early days of Munger's investment partnership, he held very few securities. When good ideas came, he poured significant capital into them; otherwise, he simply enjoyed the California sun. The amount of money employed in each of your investments should relate directly to its attractiveness. When you find a great investment, don't be afraid to bet big on it. 

7. Have patience Resist the natural human bias to act.
Munger said it best himself: "Half of Warren's time is sitting on his ass and reading; the other half is spent talking on the phone or in person to a highly gifted person that he trusts and trust him." While it can be tempting to jump in and out of the market, true fortunes are made from big commitments in quality companies, held indefinitely. When you're done with that, find a hobby. Spending all day watching stock tickers won't do you much good. 

8. Be decisive When proper circumstances present themselves, act with decisiveness and conviction.
This also goes back to not following the herd. When others are jubilant, you should be scared, and vice versa. Don't let others' emotions sway you; the market masses should help you find opportunities in their absence, not guide you down their own path to mediocrity. 

9. Be ready for change Accept unremovable complexity.
Investing success requires us to accept inevitable changes. Munger and Buffett hated railroads for decades, but as the times changed, they threw their old thoughts out the door and invested billions. The world around us won't always conform to our preferences and prejudices, and sometimes our best ideas will prove incorrect. If you aren't willing to roll with a changing market, you may find yourself fighting a lost cause.

10. Stay focused Keep it simple and remember what you set out to do.
In chasing little, unimportant things, we often overlook huge and critical factors. But by keeping it simple, we can fixate on what really matters: buying good companies at a good price, and holding them until they're fully priced.
Charlie Munger often gets overshadowed by his more famous partner, but don't assume that's any reflection of Munger's own genius. He's undoubtedly been a guiding light for Buffett himself, and by any count, he should go down as one of the greatest investors of all time.

For related Munger-esque Foolishness:

• Munger on Human Misjudgements
• The Best of Charlie Munger
• Munger Goes Mental

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/12/13/charlie-mungers-10-rules-for-investment-success.aspx

Charlie Munger is negative about the economy, but positive about stocks

The strategy sounds simple enough, but Mr Munger says few investors practise it.

“You can’t believe the way that conventional wisdom invests money,” he explains. “They tend to rush into whatever fad has worked lately. In my opinion, a lot of them are going to get creamed.”


17th May 2009: Today he's negative about the economy, but positive about stocks -- a bullish sign. In the late 1990s, Munger complained that he didn't see much to buy. The market quickly proved him right. But, at current market prices, Munger sees many long-term investment opportunities.

"I am willing to buy common stocks with long-term money at these prices," Munger said. "Is Coca-Cola worth what it's selling for? Yes. Is Wells Fargo? Yes." He owns both.

"If you wait until the economy is working properly to buy stocks, it's almost certainly too late," he said. "I have no feeling that just because there's more agony ahead for the economy you should wait to invest."

But you need to be selective.