Did You Make the Same Mistake?

By Marc Lichtenfeld, Investment Director

Monday, March 25, 2013

One of the first lessons I learned about investing had nothing to do with the markets.

In my first job out of school, I was a junior assistant marketing whatever at a credit union. It was the early 90s and there was a recession. My boss was a 30-something-year-old VP with a drinking problem. But she could market the heck out of that credit union.

She grew our membership manifold, explaining to me that the time to spend and grab market share is during a recession when everyone in the industry is cutting back on marketing.

She was the ultimate contrarian.

I’ve applied that lesson to investing. As real estate melted down, my wife and I picked up investment properties. In 2009, when investors were bailing on their stocks and plowing everything into cash, I put my cash to work and bought stocks with both hands.

Most investors weren’t that lucky (or smart) and are just now getting back into the market.

In fact, in February of 2012, when they should have been buying stocks, investors pulled $1 billion out of stock mutual funds. And this February, as the markets close in on record highs, investors went on a buying spree, stashing some $550 million in stock mutual funds last month.

In other words, investors are returning to stocks after the market has already more than doubled.

While sentiment has improved significantly, it’s not at extreme levels yet. Think back to the dot-com boom, the real estate boom, or the Great Recession. Those were extremes.

Doesn’t Matter

I can’t tell you if we’re on the verge of a bear market, correction, or another 100% rally. For my purposes (and probably yours if you’re reading this column), it shouldn’t matter.

Investing for the long haul means ignoring all the noise, whether it’s market action, talking heads, or magazine covers.

When you take a sensible approach to investing with your eye on the long term, good things happen.

It’s not exciting mind you. But it works, year after year, decade after decade. And that’s my focus – to help you make money and prepare for, or live better in, retirement.

The key is to own what I call Perpetual Dividend Raisers – companies that raise their dividends every year. Stocks like Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL), The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) and Proctor & Gamble (NYSE: PG).

Warning – you’re not going to impress anyone at a cocktail party when you sing the praises of your favorite stock that makes dishwashing liquid and toothpaste. But here’s how those three stocks performed over the last 10 years, most of which encompassed what is being called “the lost decade” because of a zero return in the stock market.

During that time period, Coke raised its dividend an average of 10% per year. Colgate, the boring toothpaste company, boosted its payout by an average of 13%. Proctor & Gamble’s annual raise was 11%. And these companies have been doing it forever.

On average, the three of them have raised their dividends every single year for 52 years.

That goes back to 1961… when a gallon of gas was $0.27, Alan Shepard became the first American in space and John Fitzgerald Kennedy was inaugurated as President of the United States.

That was a long time ago.

Money Machines

What makes these “boring” stocks exciting is how much money investors could have made on them. I don’t care if the company makes paper towels or technology for mobile devices; it’s hard to argue with the 9% to 13% compound annual growth rates of the three companies.

And best of all, they did it while most stocks went nowhere.

Even more impressive is that these are conservative stocks. Investors are not sticking their necks out when they buy these kinds of names.

Even during the Great Recession, Dividend Aristocrats, which are stocks that have raised the dividend every year for 25 years or more, were positive over 10 years. And by a lot.

In the decade ending in 2008, the depths of the recession, Aristocrats were up 40%. In contrast, the S&P 500 was down 9%.

Most investors chase the hottest trends. They buy stocks when they’re going up. And sell their stocks when they’re going down.

It’s the exact opposite of what you’re supposed to do.

There are lots of ways to invest. But the only way I know of that has consistently made money is to invest in stocks that raise their dividends every year.

You don’t need to zig while others are zagging. The ultimate contrarian move is to stay calm and hang on to great stocks while others are trying to figure it out.

http://wealthyretirement.com/did-you-make-the-same-mistake/

The truth is the first casualty in an election. Please respect the intelligence of the voters in having access to information to make their appropriate choice.

Rais says ten minutes airtime is what Pakatan manifesto deserves

UPDATED @ 07:20:49 PM 10-04-2013

BY SYED JAYMAL ZAHIID
APRIL 10, 2013

KUALA LUMPUR, April 10 — Datuk Seri Rais Yatim said today the 10-minute airtime given to Pakatan Rakyat (PR) parties to explain their polls manifesto was “suitable”.

The interim information, communications and culture minister also said the short time offered to PR was more than enough to showcase PR’s pledges.

“It was more than enough because we are only explaining the principles of a party’s struggle. So for BN and the opposition, they deserve to receive the respective airtime after we consider how important it is to explain their manifestos.

“For BN, its more than that, it is a commitment and a vow just as announced by the prime minister,” Rais (picture) told reporters after attending a closed door meeting between BN chairman Datuk Seri Najib Razak and the coalition’s division leaders at PWTC here.

PR had snubbed the offer, calling it a “joke” and a mockery to the freedom of press.

Leaders from the opposition pact said it had wanted the right of reply, not only during the general elections, but at all times in all of the mainstream media and TV stations, almost all of which are BN-controlled.

Free access to media was among the key eight demands made by the opposition and poll reform group Bersih 2.0. It was also one of the recommendations made by a parliamentary select committee for free and fair elections.

Rais, who told state news agency Bernama it was “ok” to use state assets to campaign ahead of the official campaigning period, said the opportunity was provided in respect of the democratic system of the country and described the snub as “arrogant”.

Meanwhile, the Elections Commission (EC) claimed the offer was to be serial and not one-off and said the opposition had misunderstood government’s intention.

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/rais-says-ten-minutes-airtime-is-what-pakatan-manifesto-deserves/

1929 Wall Street Stock Market Crash

Revisiting the Stock Market Crash Of 2008

Uploaded on 19 Dec 2008



Uploaded on 3 Mar 2011



Uploaded on 29 Sep 2008


Uploaded on 14 Dec 2011
The Financial Crisis of 2008 was an economic bubble that reached its limits and exploded. A bubble is simply where prices continue to rise beyond the true value. People buy, simply because they believe everybody else is going to buy. A bubble is based on speculation, expectation and ignorance. When these three elements collide it creates a crisis, which is often defined by irrational financial exuberance.

The causes of the economic crisis of 2008 are related to the Bush administration's attempt to finance the war in Iraq with, basically, inflation. The Federal Reserve cooperated by financing the Iraqi war, by essentially lending money to the American state. But printing new money out of thin air, actually devalues the national currency, this is called inflation. This cheap money went straight into the economy, particularly the residential housing market. As a consequence the demand for houses rose; and housing prices took off like a rocket in 2001. Thanks to inflation the prices further accelerated in 2004. More and more people took on mortgages based on cheap currency. The lenders then sold the mortgages as bundles to secondary investors, such as American banks. The American banks then sold their bundles to banks in other countries. This is how American debt spread around the world and became a real international financial crisis. European banks were selling and buying American mortgage as bundles. And all the while all of this was based on cheap money, with no value whatsoever behind it.

People expected housing prices to continue to rise, but the opposite happened. The steady decline began in 2005 and by 2007 the panic kicked in and house prices were crashing down. The collapse of the housing bubble dragged the secondary investors along with it. US debt had spread all around the world and the damage was truly on a global scale.

A Look Back at Black Monday 1987

After the Crash - Wall Street Week Oct. 23, 1987

The Wall Street Week episode from Friday October 23, 1987 just after the market crash on black Monday October 19. Hosted by Louis Rukeyser, guests included John Templeton, Steven Einhorn and William Schreyer.

Part 2 - Excellent advice from John Templeton.

Reliving the Crash of 87

The Nightly Business Report episode from Black Monday, October 19, 1987. The Dow Jones Average dropped by more than 22% that day to close at 1,738 with volume double the previous record (set the preceding Friday). Just two months earlier the average had peaked at 2,722, a level it would not see again for two years and would revisit for the final time in early 1991.

Understanding Warren Buffet (16.11.2009)

Not doing anything differently: Buffett (16.11.2009)

Uploaded on 16 Nov 2009
Warren Buffet, chairman and CEO, Berkshire Hathway, has faith in his long standing value investing philosophy

The Wisdom of Warren Buffett

The Wisdom of Sir John Templeton

Sir John Marks Templeton was an investor and mutual fund pioneer. Templeton was born in the town of Winchester, Tennessee. He attended Yale University and was selected for membership in the Elihu society. He financed a portion of his tuition by playing poker, a game at which he excelled. [2] Templeton graduated in 1934 near the top of his class. He attended Oxford University as a Rhodes Scholar and earned an M.A. in law.

Templeton married Judith Folk in 1937, and the couple had three children: John Jr., Anne, and Christopher. Judith died in February 1951 in a motorbike accident. He then married Irene Reynolds Butler in 1958; she died in 1993.

He was a lifelong member of the Presbyterian Church. He served as an elder of the First Presbyterian Church of Englewood (NJ). He was a trustee on the board of Princeton Theological Seminary, the largest Presbyterian seminary, for 42 years and served as its chair for 12 years.

Templeton became a billionaire by pioneering the use of globally diversified mutual funds. His Templeton Growth, Ltd. (investment fund), established in 1954, was among the first who invested in Japan in the middle of the 1960s. He is noted for buying 100 shares of each company for less than $1 ($16 in current dollar terms) a share in 1939 and making many times the money back in a 4 year period. In 2006 he was listed in a 7-way tie for 129th place on the Sunday Times Rich List. He rejected technical analysis for stock trading, preferring instead to use fundamental analysis. Money magazine in 1999 called him "arguably the greatest global stock picker of the century". He renounced his U.S. citizenship in 1968, thus avoiding U.S. income taxes. He had dual naturalized Bahamian and British citizenship and lived in the Bahamas.

John Templeton Investment Wisdom

Richest Man In Babylon Wisdom

The Richest Man in Babylon is a book by George Samuel Clason which dispenses financial advice through a collection of parables set in ancient Babylon. Through their experiences in business and managing household finance, the characters in the parables learn simple lessons in financial wisdom. Originally, a series of separate informational pamphlets distributed by banks and insurance companies, the pamphlets were bound together and published in book form in 1926.
- wikipedia

Philip Fisher 15 Points for Growth Stocks

Top 20 Quotes from Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett - 4 Steps to Picking a Stock

1. You have to deal in things that you are capable of understanding.

2. Then once you're over that filter, you need to have a business with some intrinsic characteristics that give it a durable competitive advantage.

3. Then you should vastly prefer management in place with a lot of integrity and talent.

4. Finally, no matter how wonderful it is, it's not worth an infinite price, so you have to have a price that makes sense and gives a margin of safety considering the natural vicissitudes of life.

It's a very simple set of ideas. The reason that these ideas have not spread faster is they're too simple.

Charlie Munger Quotes

Peter Lynch's 25 Golden Rules of Investment

Peter Lynch Fidelity Investments

Dale Carnegie - How to Stop Worrying and Start Living

How to Stop Worrying and Start Living - Dale Carnegie

Dale Carnegie (1888 -- 1955) was an American writer and lecturer and the developer of famous courses in self-improvement, salesmanship, corporate training, public speaking and interpersonal skills. Born in poverty on a farm in Missouri, he was the author of How to Win Friends and Influence People, first published in 1936, a massive bestseller that remains popular today.

He also wrote How to Stop Worrying and Start Living, a biography of Abraham Lincoln entitled Lincoln the Unknown, and several other books.

One of the core ideas in his books is that it is possible to change other people's behavior by changing one's reaction to them.

Biography

Born in 1888 in Maryville, Missouri, Carnegie was a poor farmer's boy, the second son of James William Carnagey (b. Indiana, February 1852 -- living 1910) and wife Amanda Elizabeth Harbison (b. Missouri, February 1858 -- living 1910). In his teens, though still having to get up at 4 a.m. every day to milk his parents' cows, he managed to obtain an education at the State Teacher's College in Warrensburg. His first job after college was selling correspondence courses to ranchers; then he moved on to selling bacon, soap and lard for Armour & Company. He was successful to the point of making his sales territory of South Omaha, Nebraska, the national leader for the firm.[1]

After saving $500, Dale Carnegie quit sales in 1911 in order to pursue a lifelong dream of becoming a Chautauqua lecturer. He ended up instead attending the American Academy of Dramatic Arts in New York, but found little success as an actor, though it is written that he played the role of Dr. Hartley in a road show of Polly of the Circus.[citation needed] When the production ended, he returned to New York, unemployed, nearly broke, and living at the YMCA on 125th Street. It was there that he got the idea to teach public speaking, and he persuaded the "Y" manager to allow him to instruct a class in return for 80% of the net proceeds. In his first session, he had run out of material; improvising, he suggested that students speak about "something that made them angry", and discovered that the technique made speakers unafraid to address a public audience.[2] From this 1912 debut, the Dale Carnegie Course evolved. Carnegie had tapped into the average American's desire to have more self-confidence, and by 1914, he was earning $500 - the equivalent of nearly $10,000 now - every week.

Perhaps one of Carnegie's most successful marketing moves was to change the spelling of his last name from "Carnagey" to Carnegie, at a time when Andrew Carnegie (unrelated) was a widely revered and recognized name. By 1916, Dale was able to rent Carnegie Hall itself for a lecture to a packed house.[3] Carnegie's first collection of his writings was Public Speaking: a Practical Course for Business Men (1926), later entitled Public Speaking and Influencing Men in Business (1932). His crowning achievement, however, was when Simon & Schuster published How to Win Friends and Influence People. The book was a bestseller from its debut in 1936[4], in its 17th printing within a few months.[3] By the time of Carnegie's death, the book had sold five million copies in 31 languages, and there had been 450,000 graduates of his Dale Carnegie Institute.[5] It has been stated in the book that he had critiqued over 150,000 speeches in his participation in the adult education movement of the time.[6] During World War I he served in the U.S. Army.[7]

His first marriage ended in divorce in 1931. On November 5, 1944, in Tulsa, Oklahoma, he married Dorothy Price Vanderpool, who also had been divorced. Vanderpool had two daughters; Rosemary, from her first marriage, and Donna Dale from their marriage together.

Carnegie died at his home in Forest Hills, New York.[8] He was buried in the Belton, Cass County, Missouri, cemetery. The official biography from Dale Carnegie & Associates, Inc. states that he died of Hodgkin's disease on November 1, 1955.[9]

Dale Carnegie - How to Win Friends & Influence People (audiobook)

Investors care more about performance than fees

Critics say most fund managers are failing to reveal the true cost of investing.

More than a third of investors consider performance the single most important factor when choosing a fund.

More than a third of investors consider performance the single most important factor when choosing a fund 

By Emma Wall

2:35PM BST 08 Apr 2013

Comment

Consumers rank past performance as the most important consideration when choosing a prospective investment, followed by who the fund manager is and how the portfolio is distracted.

Although fees and charges are a hot topic among investment forums and financial advisers, the survey, conducted by the Association of Investment Companies (AIC) using survey data from Morningstar, revealed investors themselves care less about cost.

Jacqueline Lockie, at the AIC, said that investors should rethink their priorities when it comes to constructing their own portfolios.

She considered portfolio composition by far the most important of all the options.

"Research shows us that the way to control returns is to identify the asset allocation," she said. "It’s all about risk."

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She considers charges the second most important factor: "All charges on a fund drag back its performance and reduce it. If a fund increased by 7pc in the last year, but the total charges were 1.5pc, the returns to the investor would be only 5.5pc. The bigger the charge, the harder the fund has to work to stand still."

Last week, the chief executive of the Investment Management Association called on fund managers to reveal real investing costs and set out charges on annual statements as pounds and pence.

The charges levied on investments and pensions have come under intense scrutiny in the past two years. The Telegraph has led a powerful campaign against high fees on retirement savings, in particular.

Critics say most fund managers are failing to reveal the true cost of investing. The vast majority of managers of unit trusts and Oeics, the most commonly held investments, advertise an annual management charge, which is normally around 1.5pc.

But this doesn't include the other costs of investing. Analysts also use a measure called the total expense ratio (TER) to compare funds but even this does not capture the full cost.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/9979154/Investors-care-more-about-performance-than-fees.html

Tesco faces £1bn writedown to quit America

Tesco is facing a bill of about £1bn to quit its loss-making Fresh & Easy business in the US.

2007 - The first of Tesco's Fresh & Easy shops opens in the US. Since then the company has launched more than 200, employing more than 5,000 people. 

By Graham Ruddick

9:30PM BST 07 Apr 2013

57 Comments

The size of the charge, which will be in the form of a writedown in the value of Tesco’s assets, highlights the torrid time that Britain’s biggest retailer has faced in the US since opening in 2007.

Philip Clarke, the chief executive, is set to confirm in the company’s full-year results next week that Tesco will exit the US after launching a strategic review last year.

However, this will come at the cost of a writedown on the value of Tesco’s investments in the country, including the wholly-owned stores, leases and a major distribution centre in Riverside, California.

Mr Clarke is understood to be working on the sale of the business – with Aldi one of the potential buyers – but a closure of Fresh & Easy and then a piece-by-piece sale of the assets remains the most likely outcome.

Tesco may not reveal the future of Fresh & Easy in the results, but in order to break with the past and underline its determination to leave the US, it is understood that the FTSE 100 company will book a substantial impairment.

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• Gordon Brothers rescues Blockbuster 
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• Tesco halts new Fresh & Easy stores in the US 
  03 Oct 2012

Tesco is the third biggest retailer in the world. Under Sir Terry Leahy, it built successful businesses in countries ranging from Ireland to the Czech Republic, South Korea and Thailand.

But Fresh & Easy will go down as one of Sir Terry’s and Tesco’s biggest failures. Other retailers to have suffered in the US include J Sainsbury and Marks & Spencer.

Mr Clarke has been under pressure to review the loss-making Fresh & Easy since taking over from Sir Terry in March 2011.

Last October, Mr Clarke halted new store openings in the US and then announced two months later that Tesco would begin a strategic review because Fresh & Easy “will not deliver acceptable shareholder returns on an appropriate time frame in its current form”.

Mr Clarke said: “This has not been an easy decision but I know it’s the right one.”

Tesco declined to comment on Sunday night.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/9977578/Tesco-faces-1bn-writedown-to-quit-America.html

‘Go big or go home’ – how to make it in business

Alastair Mitchell, CEO and co-founder of Huddle, a collaboration platform in the Cloud, offers his top 10 tips for would-be entrepreneurs.

10 of the best: Huddle CEO Alastair Mitchell offers sound business advice 

5:54PM GMT 09 Nov 2012

^{Find out how RBS is helping young entrepreneurs at Inspiring youth Enterprise}

Life as an entrepreneur is like being on a roller coaster that just won’t stop. There are breathless, stomach-churning twists and turns, and you can go from feeling like Richard Branson to Del Boy in the same day. Much of the time it can be hard to feel like you are in control, certainly when your business starts to get noticed and momentum gathers.

Since I founded Huddle, the leader in enterprise cloud collaboration and content management, back in 2006 with Andy McLoughlin, I’ve felt like that on numerous occasions. In just over four years, Huddle has grown from a bedroom start-up with a team of just two – and, yes, that was Andy and me – to a 100-strong business with offices in London and San Francisco that competes (and wins) head-to-head with Microsoft.

Getting to this point has been exciting, exhilarating and exhausting at times, but all the more rewarding for it. Setting up your own company comes with its fair share of trials and tribulations and can be massively daunting here in the United Kingdom. The UK is an incredible country in many ways, but I’m not always convinced that it is as supportive of entrepreneurs as it could be, particularly when compared to the US. That’s not a criticism of government, but more a general observation about the culture surrounding start-ups and entrepreneurs.

In the US, and in San Francisco especially, people are encouraged to become entrepreneurs; there is a support network for people to tap into, ask questions of and get advice from. Even the biggest and most successful entrepreneurs take the time out to pass on their experiences and act as a mentors.

So, in the spirit of sharing the entrepreneurial wisdom, here are the 10 most useful tips I’d like to impart to all the aspiring young entrepreneurs out there.

1. Spend as much time as possible researching your idea

You need to look at what is out there already, what might be in the pipeline and see if there really is a market for your idea. Your friends and family might not necessarily be the best people to bounce an idea off either – unless you come from a family of entrepreneurs, of course. Try and find a mentor in a non-competing business that can give you a steer in the right direction and some objective advice.

2. Concentrate on building the best product that you can – be uncompromising in your vision

There are too many bad products in the world, so do your utmost to make sure yours isn’t one of them. Take feedback on board from as many trusted advisers as you wish, but don’t dilute your vision too much. Andy and I set out with the clear goal of helping people work better together, and that remains the foundation of what we do to this day.

3. Get customers involved early

They can provide good feedback, the comfort factor for prospects and proof that there is something tangible to your business for potential investors. Whether it’s an in-depth case study, press release to send to the media or just a quick one-line testimonial for the website, having a customer willing to say “we use this and we love it” is as powerful a marketing message as one could wish for.

4. Be ruthless from the off

It’s not a problem to give away a chunk of your business as you get started – but be mindful of how much it is worth and be ruthless from the very first day. Even at the beginning, you need to be firm and strong when negotiating and doing deals. If you let people walk all over you, you’ll set a precedent from that point onwards for people to take advantage of you and get the upper hand in any negotiations.

5. Go big or go home

I’m a massive believer in reaching for the skies, both in life and in business – who on Earth wants to set up the sixth most successful company? So you need to be convinced that your business is going to be successful, otherwise convincing other people of that fact will be an uphill struggle.

6. First impressions can only be made once

You can’t underestimate the importance of a successful launch. If people perceive you to be a successful, on-the-up and a business with a buzz about it, then more often than not that will become a reality. Use PR, social media, analyst relations (for techie businesses), DM, email and Google AdWords; copy elements of other successful launches you may have seen; and do not be afraid of spending money to get the desired results – it will be money very well spent.

7. Take advantage of all your connections and network, network, network

Your network of contacts is extremely important and will prove invaluable when you’re looking to expand your team and gain feedback on your product or service. Take advantage of every single connection, as help can come from the most unlikely places. My first boss was Huddle’s original angel investor, and this initial funding helped us get started. Online networking has never been easier, with Twitter, LinkedIn and others, but that should be in addition to, not instead of, face-to-face networking. There is no substitute for meeting people in the flesh.

8. Surround yourself with the very best people

I know about marketing, have some experience in marketing and have very strong ideas about marketing my business. But I am not a marketer. I soon realised that as Huddle grew I needed to get the very best people in their respective disciplines to help maintain that growth. So whether it is PR, marketing, HR, accounting or other, don’t try and wing it yourself and only hire the best.

9. Raising money is a job in itself

When you are out and about, pressing investor flesh and running through your “show me the money” presentation for the umpteenth time, who is running your business? Raising cash from investors can be a full-time job, and you can’t afford to take your eye off the ball when it comes to the day job. So don’t – use external resources where you need to.

10. Keep the faith

It’s an oft-quoted fact that most companies that go out of business do so in the first year of trading. Once you’ve survived that, you’ll be in a position to build and grow. But don’t worry if things are taking twice as long as they should be and you think cash is running out. It probably is. But that’s normal - ride it through, don’t get distracted from your vision and everything will turn out ok. And even if it doesn’t you’ll be in for a hell of a ride.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sponsored/business/youth-business-enterprise/9667101/business-start-up-tips.html

The various interpretations for the P/E value

There are various interpretations for the P/E value and this is just one of them:

*N/A: A company with no earnings has an undefined P/E ratio. Companies with losses or negative earnings also fall under this category.
*0-10: This means that the company's earnings are declining. It could also mean an overlooked stock.
*10-17: This is the average healthy value
*17-25: This means that the stock is either overvalued or its earnings are increasing.
*25+: Such companies are expected to have high future growth in earnings.

It is important that investors note avoid basing a decision on this measure alone. The ratio is dependent on share price which can fluctuate according to changes in the market.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.ca/2009/11/what-does-pe-ratio-tell-you.html

Valuation Methods: How to value a business, a company or its shares

Investment Decisions and Fundamentals of Value

@ 6.47 min
Managers should invest in real assets and should not be involved in investing in financial assets which the shareholders can do on their own.


What is a Valuable Investment Opportunity?

1. An investment worth more than it costs.
2. An investment with a return greater than its opportunity cost of capital.

Why does an asset have value?

1. An asset provides a return on investment in the form of future cash payments.
2. When we make an investment, we are buying a cash flow stream.
3. When we assess the value of an asset, we assess the value of its cash flow stream.

Asset valuation is the answer to the following question:

What is the PRESENT VALUE of a Future Cash Flow Stream?

@ 13 min

What determines the present value of a cash flow stream?

1. Magnitude
2. Timing
3. Risk

@ 15 min

Risk of the cash flow stream

Consider 2 cash flows streams A and B

A pays $100 for certain.

B may pay as much as $100 but may pay as little as $60.

Choice:  Choose A

We are risk adverse.  A SAFE dollar is worth more than a RISKY dollar.

@ 17 min

Time Value of Money

Time value of money is the rate of exchange between present dollars and future dollars established in the financial market.

Time value of money is reflected in the rates of return available to all investors in the financial markets.

@ 18.30

Risk and Return Relationship

Safe dollars are more valuable than risky dollars

Risk averse investors prefer safe investments.

How do you induce risk averse investors to take a risky investment?

Risky investments must promise higher returns to induce investors to undertake them.

In the financial markets, investments are priced so that the higher the risk, the higher the expected return.

Risky investment's rate of return reflects a risk premium that rewards investors for taking on the investment's risk.

Investment's opportunity cost of capital is the return forgone on an investment in the financial market of comparable risk.

Riskier investments have higher opportunity costs of capital.

Rate of Return = Time Value of Money + Risk Premium

Rate of Return = Risk Free Rate + Risk Premium

@ 21.30

Value of an asset:

1.  Forecast the magnitude and timing of the cash flow stream over its economic life.

2.  Assess the risk of the cash flow stream.

3.  Value the cash flow stream given its magnitude, timing, and risk at its opportunity cost of capital.

Market Value and Rate of Return

@ 23 min

The cash flow stream's value is determined by the amount of money needed today to recreate its magnitude, timing, and risk in the financial market at its opportunity cost of capital.

@ 24.50

What is the investment's opportunity cost of capital?

PV = FV / (1+r)

The value of an investment asset is the money needed today to recreate its future cash flow stream in the financial market at its opportunity cost of capital (r).

The value of an investment asset is the present value of its future cash flow stream.

How much is the asset worth, and how much does it cost?

• What is the value of the asset's future cash flow stream today, and how much does it cost?
• What is its PRESENT VALUE, and how much does it cost?
• What is the prevent value net of cost?
• What is its NET PRESENT VALUE?

NPV = PV of Investment - Cost

A valuable investment opportunity is worth more than it costs.

@ 31 min

If 

NPV > 0, investment is worth more than it costs

NPV < 0, investment costs more than it is worth.

NPV =0, investment costs as much as it is worth.

NPV is the absolute dollar change in wealth from the acceptance of an investment opportunity.

Look for investment opportunities in those with positive NPV projects.

What is a valuable investment opportunity?

1. An investment with a net present value greater than zero.
2. An investment with a return greater than its opportunity cost of capital.

Investment Decision Rules

1. Accept all investments with Net Present Values greater than Zero.
2. Accept all investments with rates of return greater than their opportunity costs of capital.

@ 34 min

Example using the Net Present Value Rule

NPV = PV - Cost 

> 0, therefore we accept the project.

@ 35 min

Example using the Rates of Return greater than their Opportunity Cost of Capital

Rate of Return = 20%.

Opportunity cost of capital = 12%.

Therefore, accept the project.

@ 36.50

You are considering an investment opportunity that costs $100,000 and promises to return 10%.

A comparable investment in the financial market returns 15%.

A bank offers to lend you $100,000 at 8% with no conditions.

Do you invest $100,000 in the investment opportunity?  NO.

Financing cost = 8%.

What is the investment's cost of capital? 15%.

The cost of capital is the return on comparable investments in the financial market, that is 15%.

The cost of capital is not the cost of raising the money to finance the investment.  That is a financing decision and not an investment decision.  

That return in the financial market is the standard against which other investment opportunities are evaluated.

The financing by the bank loan is irrelevant to the investment decision.

Investment decision and financing decision are separate and independent decisions.

First make the investment decision, after that, then make the financing decision.

Thanks for pointing this video out to me.
<  I found these very helpful : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtQKrPBz3XA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4q2Xcbrazhw on Financial Ratio Tutorial Anonymous on 4/7/13 >

Invest like Buffett - Hold on to your Winners Forever

Best holding period is holding forever.
Sell your losers, hold on to your winners.

SELL THE LOSERS, LET THE WINNERS RUN.
Losers refer NOT to those stocks with the depressed prices but to those whose revenues and earnings aren't capable of growing adequately. Weed out these losers and reinvest the cash into other stocks with better revenues and earnings potential for higher returns.

< I suggest this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVqyCRYBieI >
Newbie
on 4/7/13

Thanks to Newbie for highlighting this video to me.

WARREN BUFFETT THE BILLIONAIRE NEXT DOOR GOES GLOBAL

Bill Gates talking about Warren Buffett

The Truth About Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett and PetroChina - Great lessons for investors on how he selects, buys and sells a stock

Warren Buffett - This is Always a Bad Investment

Cash is always a bad investment. Cash has never produced anything, and its value will go down over time. We will always have cash around, but it's not good to have too much. You would much rather own a good business. Every currency will be worth less in the future. More money will be printed than there will be goods circulating in the economy.


@7.50

Warren Buffett - The Stock Market Casino

Warren Buffett on Gambling

Warren Buffett: "Why I always keep some cash in Berkshire Hathaway - at least $10 billion."

Wise Words From Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett Quotes on Life

GOLD is 4 suckers - Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, & CNBC join the war

Why Buffett does not like to invest in gold?
@ 6 min

Charlie Munger on Berkshire Hathaway

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BozFBR1owk

Warren Buffett How to Turn 40 into 5 Million

Buy an attractive business.
My biggest mistakes are those of omissions.
Better to learn from other people's mistakes.
Disagree but never argue.
Live life forward.
Important and knowable.
Important but not knowable.
Buffett's buying is not affected by macroeconomic factors.

HOW WARREN BUFFETT HEDGES HIMSELF AGAINST INFLATION

Good interview Buffett starts talking about how he hedges himself and what you can use to hedge yourself against inflation starting at 16.42

Warren Buffett - Berkshire Hathaway's Stock Price

@3 min

Warren Buffett - How to Identify a Good Investment

Top 20 Quotes from Warren Buffett

Charlie Munger on Investing

Charlie Munger Reveals Secrets to Getting Rich

@ 6 min

What is Portfolio Management anyway?

When to Sell: A Workshop with Ellis Traub

Session 1

What is Portfolio Management anyway?

Around the end of last year, a few of us were asked to contribute a list of five stocks we thought would be good investments and to comment on the reasons we thought they would be. I did so but, unfortunately, I got so wrapped up in other things that I forgot all about them. So I’m in the embarrassing position of having to lead this discussion off with the admonition, “Do as I say and not as I do!”

In any event, the best I can hope for is a) you’ll accept this as an example of why you should pay attention to what’s ahead, and b) I’ll be able to demonstrate in the months ahead how you can greet such a challenge and turn things around. That disclaimer out of the way, let’s get at it.

Although most of the fun of investing surrounds the acquisition of your stocks, the fact is that buying them is only a half of what investing’s all about. The other half—for a variety of reasons we’ll discuss in a moment—is considered by most of us as being pretty much of a drag! Yet, there’s as much or more potential benefit is to be derived from managing your portfolio as from buying the right stocks in the first place.

What I intend to do in the next few days is to address all the reasons why we don’t do it very well—if we do it at all—and to expose those reasons for what they are: insufficient excuses. In the next five lessons, I hope to make it clear that we no longer have a leg to stand on for not doing what we need to do; and, with any luck at all, I might even persuade you it can be fully as much fun as the stuff we do to select our companies for investment.

You know, just the term, “Portfolio Management,” is pretentious …almost intimidating. It suggests that we have to put in hours of dedicated and tedious work, and it suggests that it’s much more complicated than it really is. So let’s set the record straight here by first understanding what Portfolio Management really is; and start that process by explaining what it’s not.

Portfolio Management is definitely not Portfolio Tracking. If you think that regularly looking at our portfolios to see how the prices are doing, and whether or not they’re making money, is managing our portfolios, fuggedaboudit! Portfolio tracking, at best, is merely checking to see how good or poor a job of managing our portfolios we’re doing. It has nothing to do with the actual task of managing our holdings. In fact, as you’ll see down the road in this workshop, portfolio tracking can be one of the more insidious things that can work against sound portfolio management.

No, Portfolio Management is a pro-active activity that requires a certain amount of discipline and dedication. Its purpose is simply to catch our losers before they damage our portfolios’ performances, and to maintain our average estimated return at as close to 15 percent as possible so we can meet our objective or doubling our money every five years.

When an issue seems complicated, what’s the easiest way to cut it down to size? It’s to break it down into its smallest parts. In this case, that’s easy! Once we own a stock or stocks, there are only two things we can possibly do with them: either hold onto them or sell them.

Since we already hold them, we are left with only one decision to make; and that is simply when to sell them. So Portfolio Management is nothing more than making that determination: when to sell them. That’s all there is to it!

More than “when,” why we would sell them is the important issue. As long-term investors, the most important thing that distinguishes us from “the herd”—those who trade or try to make money in the market in the short term—is the definition of “long-term.” We buy stocks not to hold until they reach a target price, not for a month, not even for five years. We buy them to hold forever! …unless—and here is where I can go another step further in making it simpler for you—unless one of three, and only three, conditions come to pass:

1. We want or need the money,
2. The Quality deteriorates (Defensive strategy: SSG Sections 1 & 
3. The potential Return deteriorates (Offensive strategy: SSG Sections 3 – 5)

Indeed, these are the only three conditions that would warrant your selling a stock.

So, “When to sell” (Portfolio Management) means watching our holdings to see whether any of them meet conditions 2 or 3 in hopes that we can hold onto them until such time as we reach condition 1.

During the next five days, we’re going to discuss 1) all the excuses we have heard for not doing the job; 2) why you can no longer use them for excuses; 3) the basics of defensive portfolio management, 4) the basics of offensive portfolio management, and 5) the tools we have at our disposal to make the task even simpler.

http://www.stockcentral.com/tabid/143/forumid/289/postid/3523/view/topic/Default.aspx

A 5% return may end up being a better deal than a 20% return.

If one is able to get a 5% return in a month, we could argue that it is a better investment than one that earns us a 20% return over a two-year period.

The reason for this is that a 5% rate of return in a month is arguably the equivalent of getting a yearly rate of return of 60% (5% x 12 = 60%). 

Likewise, a 20% return at the end of two years is arguably the same as only getting a 10% yearly rate of return.  (20% / 2 years = 10%).

Of course, this argument is premised on being able to reallocate the capital that we had out at 5% for a month, at attractive rates in the preceding months. 

But in theory, if you could reallocate your capital 5 times over a two-year period and each time earn 5% a month, it would still produce better results than getting a 20% return at the end of a two-year period.  

The certainty of the deal is important.  This allows for a quick and certain return

Buffett: 'Business is coming back' (How to write an Annual Report)

@25 min: How to write an annual report.

Importance of Financial Education and Knowledge in Investing in the Stock Market

The tragedy is that people work so hard to earn money, and then they lose so much of it on the stock market because they haven’t taken the relatively simple steps to educate themselves about it.

First rule of Buffett: Do not lose money.


April 4, 2013
Mom and pop: The world’s worst investors
Commentary: They buy high, sell low, and the ending is predictable

By Brett Arends
Oh, brother.

I don’t know Mark Villa and Lucie White, a pair of doctors in Houston, Texas, who were featured in a big story in our sister publication, The Wall Street Journal, a few days ago.

And I wish them all the best.

But when I read the story about them, and other “mom and pop” investors rushing to jump back into the booming stock market, a few words crossed my mind.

The more printable ones included “Uh-oh” and “Doom.”

You know how, when you get older, the movies just get so predictable you can hardly bear to go any more? Within the first five minutes you can already tell how the whole story is going to end.

So I’m sorry, but when I read “Mom and Pop Run With the Bulls,” all I could think was, here we go again.

My Journal colleague Jonathan Cheng’s story tells you everything you need to know. Villa and White felt “sucker punched” when stocks collapsed in 2008, he reports. The crash “wiped out half their savings.” They sold out of stocks, put their money in the bank, and “swore off stocks,” presumably forever.

Last month, as the Standard & Poor’s 500 index surged to new highs, they hired a new financial adviser and plunged into the stock market again.

The problem with Villa and White isn’t that they are unusual but that they are absolutely the typical American investor. Both of them are doctors, meaning they are presumably intelligent and educated. And yet they insist on investing like absolute fools.

First, their minds have been playing tricks on them all along. The crash of 2008 did not wipe out half their savings, unless they invested all their money right at the peak and sold right at the bottom. The reality is that it wiped out a lot of illusory gains and replaced them with a lot of illusory losses. Stock prices were wrong in 2007 because they were too high, and they were wrong in late 2008 and early 2009 because they were too low.

Second, as they now know, they sold out somewhere near the lows. They were not alone. According to the Investment Company Institute, the trade body of the mutual fund industry, U.S. investors flooded the market with stocks in the fall of 2008 and the winter of 2009. From September, 2008 through March, 2009, ordinary U.S. investors dumped $114 billion worth of stock funds. They sold at absolutely the worst time.

This is not a coincidence. The stock market is “us.” Share prices fall because there are more sellers than buyers. They rise because of the reverse. So mom and pop investors like the Villa-Whites rush to dump their stocks because they see the market plummeting, oblivious to the fact that the only reason it’s falling is because people like them are rushing to dump their stocks.

And here we are in the opposite situation. The Investment Company Institute reports that mutual fund investors have pumped about $20 billion back into stock funds since the start of the year. Mom and pop investors across the country, just like the Villa-Whites, are rushing to buy stocks so they don’t “miss out” on big gains. The reality is that stocks have risen, in part, because people like them have rushed to buy stocks. And the more of them rush to buy stocks, the higher they drive the price.

Study after study has found the grim truth. People like the Villa-Whites end up losing money for years, even when the stock market has gone up, because they have sold at the wrong times and bought at the wrong times. They have consistently bought high and sold low. You could have made astonishing super-normal profits over the past thirty years just by selling stocks when Mom and Pop were buying, and buying stocks when Mom and Pop were selling.


Be like Buffett: Buy low and sell high.

Have you heard of Suicide Chess, a peculiar game where the rules are reversed and you try to lose all your pieces? Mom and pop investors like the Villa-Whites are playing Suicide Roulette.

The tragedy is that people like the Villa-Whites work so hard to earn money, and then they lose so much of it on the stock market because they haven’t taken the relatively simple steps to educate themselves about it.

There is no great mystery to the stock market. The longer I follow it, the less complicated it actually becomes. Buy stocks when they are cheap and everyone is afraid to own them. Don’t buy stocks when they are expensive and everyone is afraid of getting “left behind.” In other words, be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. This is no great insight — Warren Buffett keeps saying it. The Villa-Whites were selling their stocks around the time Buffett was buying — and telling everyone he was buying too.

But the message just gets lost.

There are reasons for that. They include the Federal Reserve’s policy of Forever Blowing Bubbles, which has played havoc with the idea of the sensible long-term investor. They also include the spreading influence of a cult called the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which downplays the importance of the actual price you pay for stocks. It is horrifying how many financial advisers have bought into the nonsense of the EMH, often without even understanding it.

In late 2008 and early 2009 I was tasked by The Wall Street Journal with finding good value stocks for people to buy. And my job was very easy. There were so many cheap stocks around you could scoop them up with a spoon. Indeed in October 2008 I described it as “shooting fish in a barrel.” I was six months early, but so what?

Today it is very hard to find stocks that look great value, especially here in the U.S. And people like the Villa-Whites are rushing to buy stocks before they go to infinity.

I fear I have seen this movie before.

Brett Arends is a MarketWatch columnist. Follow him on Twitter @BrettArends.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mom-and-pop-the-worlds-worst-investors-2013-04-04