myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Thursday 24 November 2011

Maybulk

Market Watch

Recent Financial Results

Announcement Date	Financial Yr. End	Qtr	Period End	Revenue RM '000	Profit/Lost RM'000	EPS	Amended
23-Nov-11	31-Dec-11	3	30-Sep-11	44,379	921	0.04	-
24-Aug-11	31-Dec-11	2	30-Jun-11	69,653	22,554	2.19	-
25-May-11	31-Dec-11	1	31-Mar-11	84,914	53,092	5.27	-
23-Feb-11	31-Dec-10	4	31-Dec-10	84,725	68,711	6.77	-

Share Price Performance

	High		Low
Prices 1 Month	1.960	(28-Oct-11)	1.580	(24-Nov-11)
Prices 3 Months	2.030	(24-Aug-11)	1.580	(24-Nov-11)
Prices 12 Months	3.000	(08-Dec-10)	1.580	(24-Nov-11)
Volume 12 Months	14,485	(04-Apr-11)	162	(26-Jul-11)

IRIS

Market Watch

Recent Financial Results

Announcement Date	Financial Yr. End	Qtr	Period End	Revenue RM '000	Profit/Lost RM'000	EPS	Amended
23-Nov-11	31-Dec-11	3	30-Sep-11	103,373	12,813	0.90	-
24-Aug-11	31-Dec-11	2	30-Jun-11	95,305	5,849	0.41	-
19-May-11	31-Dec-11	1	31-Mar-11	73,059	6,436	0.45	-
23-Feb-11	31-Dec-10	4	31-Dec-10	75,473	3,319	0.24	-

Share Price Performance

	High		Low
Prices 1 Month	0.185	(10-Nov-11)	0.145	(02-Nov-11)
Prices 3 Months	0.185	(10-Nov-11)	0.130	(05-Oct-11)
Prices 12 Months	0.260	(08-Feb-11)	0.130	(05-Oct-11)
Volume 12 Months	2,033,311	(07-Feb-11)	2,004	(28-Sep-11)

Genting Plantation (GENP)

Market Watch

Recent Financial Results

Announcement Date	Financial Yr. End	Qtr	Period End	Revenue RM '000	Profit/Lost RM'000	EPS	Amended
23-Nov-11	31-Dec-11	3	30-Sep-11	344,515	113,248	14.99	-
24-Aug-11	31-Dec-11	2	30-Jun-11	364,382	141,116	18.44	-
25-May-11	31-Dec-11	1	31-Mar-11	271,116	94,812	12.43	-
22-Feb-11	31-Dec-10	4	31-Dec-10	296,705	103,290	13.54	-

Share Price Performance

	High		Low
Prices 1 Month	8.280	(14-Nov-11)	7.280	(02-Nov-11)
Prices 3 Months	8.280	(14-Nov-11)	6.550	(07-Oct-11)
Prices 12 Months	9.090	(05-Jan-11)	6.550	(07-Oct-11)
Volume 12 Months	39,426	(14-Nov-11)	41	(25-Apr-11)

Delloyd

Market Watch

Recent Financial Results

Announcement Date	Financial Yr. End	Qtr	Period End	Revenue RM '000	Profit/Lost RM'000	EPS	Amended
23-Nov-11	31-Mar-12	2	30-Sep-11	109,417	12,912	13.00	-
23-Aug-11	31-Mar-12	1	30-Jun-11	122,123	15,219	14.14	-
30-May-11	31-Mar-11	4	31-Mar-11	114,223	19,445	18.48	-
24-Feb-11	31-Mar-11	Other	31-Dec-10	126,454	18,119	14.86	-

Share Price Performance

	High		Low
Prices 1 Month	3.500	(24-Nov-11)	3.300	(27-Oct-11)
Prices 3 Months	3.630	(09-Sep-11)	3.000	(26-Sep-11)
Prices 12 Months	4.000	(10-Jun-11)	3.000	(26-Sep-11)
Volume 12 Months	2,960	(07-Jul-11)	10	(03-Nov-11)

ESSO

Market Watch

Recent Financial Results

Announcement Date	Financial Yr. End	Qtr	Period End	Revenue RM '000	Profit/Lost RM'000	EPS	Amended
23-Nov-11	31-Dec-11	3	30-Sep-11	2,848,360	-37,863	-14.00	-
16-Aug-11	31-Dec-11	2	30-Jun-11	3,063,147	1,818	0.70	-
16-May-11	31-Dec-11	1	31-Mar-11	2,604,774	154,821	57.30	-
25-Feb-11	31-Dec-10	4	31-Dec-10	2,359,536	121,515	45.00	-

Share Price Performance

	High		Low
Prices 1 Month	3.780	(31-Oct-11)	3.400	(24-Nov-11)
Prices 3 Months	4.040	(24-Aug-11)	3.310	(29-Sep-11)
Prices 12 Months	5.970	(25-May-11)	2.730	(07-Jan-11)
Volume 12 Months	137,632	(18-Aug-11)	181	(27-Dec-10)

UMW

Recent Financial Results

Announcement Date	Financial Yr. End	Qtr	Period End	Revenue RM '000	Profit/Lost RM'000	EPS	Amended
24-Nov-11	31-Dec-11	3	30-Sep-11	3,691,437	300,404	14.51	-
19-Aug-11	31-Dec-11	2	30-Jun-11	3,166,475	222,747	11.26	-
25-May-11	31-Dec-11	1	31-Mar-11	3,221,160	259,846	13.07	-
24-Feb-11	31-Dec-10	4	31-Dec-10	3,438,131	123,976	1.62	-

High		Low
	Prices 1 Month	6.950	(08-Nov-11)	6.140	(23-Nov-11)
	Prices 3 Months	9.000	(02-Sep-11)	6.140	(23-Nov-11)
	Prices 12 Months	9.000	(02-Sep-11)	6.140	(23-Nov-11)
	Volume 12 Months	77,812	(11-Jul-11)	1,755	(11-Apr-11)

LTKM

Recent Financial Results

Announcement Date	Financial Yr. End	Qtr	Period End	Revenue RM '000	Profit/Lost RM'000	EPS	Amended
24-Nov-11	31-Mar-12	2	30-Sep-11	38,874	-6,729	-15.52	-
25-Aug-11	31-Mar-12	1	30-Jun-11	39,544	2,323	5.37	-
27-May-11	31-Mar-11	4	31-Mar-11	38,905	3,494	8.10	-
26-May-11	31-Mar-11	4	31-Mar-11	38,905	3,494	8.10	-

	High		Low
Prices 1 Month	1.910	(15-Nov-11)	1.760	(17-Oct-11)
Prices 3 Months	1.980	(03-Aug-11)	1.630	(30-Sep-11)
Prices 12 Months	2.200	(23-May-11)	1.630	(30-Sep-11)
Volume 12 Months	3,489	(18-Jan-11)	3	(20-Oct-11)

Genting Berhad

Recent Financial Results

Announcement Date	Financial Yr. End	Qtr	Period End	Revenue RM '000	Profit/Lost RM'000	EPS	Amended
24-Nov-11	31-Dec-11	3	30-Sep-11	5,143,899	1,086,511	16.16	-
26-May-11	31-Dec-11	1	31-Mar-11	4,889,158	1,446,050	22.25	-
23-Feb-11	31-Dec-10	4	31-Dec-10	4,086,714	806,175	12.57	-
25-Nov-10	31-Dec-10	3	30-Sep-10	3,909,209	1,222,727	20.72	-

ttm-EPS 71.7 sen
Price $ 10.28
Trailing PE 14.3 x

High		Low
	Prices 1 Month	11.040	(09-Nov-11)	10.000	(24-Nov-11)
	Prices 3 Months	11.040	(09-Nov-11)	8.370	(26-Sep-11)
	Prices 12 Months	11.980	(14-Jan-11)	8.370	(26-Sep-11)
	Volume 12 Months	183,152	(10-Feb-11)	2,729	(27-Dec-10)

Genting Malaysia Berhad (GENM)

Market Watch

Recent Financial Results

Announcement Date	Financial Yr. End	Qtr	Period End	Revenue RM '000	Profit/Lost RM'000	EPS	Amended
24-Nov-11	31-Dec-11	3	30-Sep-11	2,315,836	347,145	6.13	-
25-Aug-11	31-Dec-11	2	30-Jun-11	1,896,025	313,753	5.54	-
26-May-11	31-Dec-11	1	31-Mar-11	1,950,580	417,698	7.37	-
23-Feb-11	31-Dec-10	4	31-Dec-10	1,558,525	362,125	6.39	-

ttm-EPS 25.43 sen

Price $ 3.86

Trailing PE 15.2x

	High		Low
Prices 1 Month	3.910	(16-Nov-11)	3.620	(02-Nov-11)
Prices 3 Months	3.910	(16-Nov-11)	3.010	(26-Sep-11)
Prices 12 Months	3.930	(07-Jul-11)	3.010	(26-Sep-11)
Volume 12 Months	227,765	(31-Mar-11)	6,802	(22-Apr-11)

Coastal

Market Watch

Recent Financial Results

Announcement Date	Financial Yr. End	Qtr	Period End	Revenue RM '000	Profit/Lost RM'000	EPS	Amended
24-Nov-11	31-Dec-11	3	30-Sep-11	110,211	36,657	7.59	-
23-Aug-11	31-Dec-11	2	30-Jun-11	233,849	46,611	12.86	-
27-May-11	31-Dec-11	1	31-Mar-11	155,830	56,092	15.48	-
23-Feb-11	31-Dec-10	4	31-Dec-10	203,403	55,663	15.36	-

ttm-EPS 51.29 sen
DPS 9.7 sen
Price $ 1.92
Trailing PE 3.74x
DY 5%

Share Price Performance

	High		Low
Prices 1 Month	2.040	(15-Nov-11)	1.770	(10-Nov-11)
Prices 3 Months	2.130	(07-Sep-11)	1.620	(26-Sep-11)
Prices 12 Months	3.820	(25-Apr-11)	1.620	(26-Sep-11)
Volume 12 Months	65,994	(05-Apr-11)	330	(01-Dec-10)

Petronas Gas

Market Watch

Recent Financial Results

Announcement Date	Financial Yr. End	Qtr	Period End	Revenue RM '000	Profit/Lost RM'000	EPS	Amended
24-Nov-11	31-Dec-11	Other	30-Sep-11	927,324	350,091	17.70	-
17-Aug-11	31-Dec-11	Other	30-Jun-11	916,553	386,724	19.54	-
11-May-11	31-Mar-11	4	31-Mar-11	891,190	266,563	13.48	-
22-Feb-11	31-Mar-11	3	31-Dec-10	892,687	400,719	20.25	-

Share Price Performance

	High		Low
Prices 1 Month	13.980	(14-Nov-11)	12.920	(22-Nov-11)
Prices 3 Months	14.680	(15-Sep-11)	12.300	(21-Oct-11)
Prices 12 Months	14.680	(15-Sep-11)	10.780	(20-Dec-10)
Volume 12 Months	129,177	(31-May-11)	879	(01-Aug-11)

ttm-EPS 70.79 sen
Price $ 13.26
Trailing PE 18.7 x

Stock fundamental analysis is a key component in any trading plan.

Stock Fundamental Analysis - A Key Component for Success

When it comes to investing in the stock market, one measurement stands out above the rest; how much did the investor earn at the bottom line. Traders use many tools to help determine their stock trading plan, but the best tool for assisting an investor is basic stock fundamental analysis. Stock fundamental analysis is the process of examining businesses at the most essential levels. This method of review evaluates key risk reward ratios of a business to attempt to determine the stability and financial health of a company and to determine the value of its stock.

Many investors use stock fundamental analysis alone for their determination of future stock purchases. While stock fundamental analysis is a powerful practice, it should be an important part of an investor’s overall stock trading plan. This plan should include stop loss strategies, as well as a stock trading system such as Japanese Candlesticks. Such a trading system, coupled with basic fundamental analysis can provide the trader with a valuable insight into the murky waters of the stock market.

Basic fundamental analysis helps an investor to know how much money a company earns. This is the ultimate measurement of its success, both currently and in the future. Earnings can be difficult to calculate, but that is to be expected when dealing with the stock market. When a company is growing and profitable, its stock generally increases; earnings create higher stock prices and in some cases, regular dividends and successful trading. Lower stock value can have the opposite effect, making the market bearish on the stock. By evaluating a stock with stock fundamental analysis, it is possible to look for basic candlestick chart formations and determine the direction of a stock. When the direction is known, an investor can implement stock market strategies which reflect either a bullish or bearish approach.

In addition to understanding a company’s earnings, there are a number of ratios involved in basic fundamental analysis that help the investors to evaluate the worth of a company’s stock. These ratios focus on earnings, growth and value in the market. Evaluating these dynamics together can provide unique reflections on the value of the company. When a company can be identified by basic fundamental analysis, its stock can be tracked using candlestick chart analysis. With this information, an investor can move confidently to make a trade.

Stock fundamental analysis is a key component in any trading plan.

My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Thursday 24 November 2011

Maybulk

Market Watch

IRIS

Market Watch

Genting Plantation (GENP)

Market Watch

Delloyd

Market Watch

ESSO

Market Watch

UMW

LTKM

Genting Berhad

Genting Malaysia Berhad (GENM)

Market Watch

Coastal

Market Watch

Petronas Gas

Market Watch

Stock fundamental analysis is a key component in any trading plan.

All equity security investments present a risk of loss of capital

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Benjamin Graham

Sell the losers, let the winners run.

Investment Style

Warren Buffett

Political and Economic News

Interesting Blogs