Thursday 28 May 2015
CFA Level I 2013 - Intensive Review Seminar - Financial Reporting and Analysis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXolfaMmLwY
Lecture 22 Finacial Statement analysis
Lecture 24 Financial Reporting Standards 0.41.00
Lecture 25
Lecture 26 Understanding Balance Sheet 1.57.00
Lecture 27
Lecture 28 Financial Analysis Techniques (Ratios) 2.49.00
Lecture 29
Lecture 30 Long Lived Assets PPE & Intangibles 3.59.00
Lecture 31 Income Tax 4.46.00
Lecture 32 Non-current (Long term) Liabilities 5.53.30
Lecture 33 Red flags and accounting warning signs 6.52.00
Lecture 34 Accounting Shenanigans of the Cash Flow Statement 6.58.30
Lecture 35 Financial Statement Analysis: Applications 7.02.00
Lecture 22 Finacial Statement analysis
Lecture 24 Financial Reporting Standards 0.41.00
Lecture 25
Lecture 26 Understanding Balance Sheet 1.57.00
Lecture 27
Lecture 28 Financial Analysis Techniques (Ratios) 2.49.00
Lecture 29
Lecture 30 Long Lived Assets PPE & Intangibles 3.59.00
Lecture 31 Income Tax 4.46.00
Lecture 32 Non-current (Long term) Liabilities 5.53.30
Lecture 33 Red flags and accounting warning signs 6.52.00
Lecture 34 Accounting Shenanigans of the Cash Flow Statement 6.58.30
Lecture 35 Financial Statement Analysis: Applications 7.02.00
Wednesday 27 May 2015
Global Financial Crisis: Documentary on Why the World Faces Financial Meltdown
Published on Oct 5, 2014
http://www.learncurrencytradingonline... This documentary shows why we face a global financial crisis and looks at past financial meltdowns such as 2008 and before to show we face a global financial meltdown again in the future, The documentary is one of the best at looking at the causes of stock market crashes and explaining why another is probably inevitable - what are the solutions? Well there are easy solutions but Governments and central banks are ignoring them and leading the global economy into crisis - a frightening look at what could happen in the near future in the global economy. Debt is to high, banks are run in a reckless fashion all encouraged by the central banks and governments.
Monday 18 May 2015
Tracking Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio - Q1 2015 Update
During Q4 2014, Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE:BRK.A) (NYSE:BRK.B) US long stock portfolio decreased ~2% from $109.37B to $107.13B. The top-five positions account for over two-thirds of the portfolio: Wells Fargo (23.88%),Coca-Cola (15.14%), International Business Machines (11.92%), American Express (11.06%), and Wal-Mart (4.64%). There are 45 individual stock positions many of which are minutely small compared to the overall size of the portfolio.
Warren Buffett's writings (pdfs) are a treasure trove of information and are a very good source for anyone starting out on individual investing.
New stakes:
None.
Stake Disposals:
None.
Stake Increases:
International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM): IBM is Buffett's third-largest stake at 11.92% of the portfolio. The original position was purchased in Q3 2011 at prices between $157.54 and $185.21. Since then, the stake has gone up by almost 40% through periodic purchases. Last five quarters have seen minor buying and the stock currently trades at $173. Berkshire's cost-basis on IBM is at around $170. Buffett is very bullish on IBM and controls ~8% of the business. For investors attempting to follow Buffett, IBM is a very good option to consider for further research.
Deere & Company (NYSE:DE): DE stake was first acquired in Q3 2012 when around 4M shares were purchased at prices between $75.11 and $82.70. The position remained steady until Q3 2014 when an additional ~3.6M shares were purchased at prices between $82 and $91.38 - Berkshire avoided disclosing DE stake in Q3 2014 by making use of the "section 13(f) Confidential Treatment Requests". Last quarter, the position was increased by another 125% at prices between $80 and $91. This quarter saw a marginal increase. The stock currently trades at $89.13. The stake is at 1.42% of the portfolio and Buffett controls ~5% of the business.
Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX): The 2% of the US long portfolio PSX stake as of Q4 2013 was reduced to a 0.71% stake in Q1 2014 at prices between $70.67 and $80.35. The position was further reduced by one-third the following quarter at prices between $76.69 and $86.33. This quarter saw an about-turn: ~14% increase at prices between $59 and $80. The stock currently trades at $81.05. Berkshire's cost-basis on PSX is much lower.
Precision Castparts (NYSE:PCP): PCP has seen steady buying in the last two quarters. Q4 2014 saw a ~37% increase at prices between $218 and $243 and this quarter saw another ~47% increase at prices between $200 and $241. The stock currently trades at $216. The stake is still very small at 0.82% of the US long portfolio.
Twenty First Century Fox (NASDAQ:FOX) (NASDAQ:FOXA): FOXA is a minutely small 0.20% of the US long portfolio stake established last quarter at prices between $31.77 and $39.01 and increased by ~31% this quarter at prices between $32.80 and $38.40. The stock currently trades at $33.99.
US Bancorp (NYSE:USB): USB, a 3.41% stake has been in the portfolio since 2006. The position was tripled during the 2007-2009 timeframe and since then was reduced by around 15% overall as of EOY 2012. In Q2 2013, ~17M shares were purchased at prices between $32.27 and $36.15. This quarter saw a 4.57% increase at prices between $40.94 and $45.12. Berkshire's cost-basis on USB is ~$32 and the stock is trading well above that price at $43.93. Buffett controls 4.7% of the business.
Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE:WFC): WFC is Buffett's largest stake at 23.88% of the US long portfolio, well ahead of Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) which is at 15.14%. This quarter saw a ~7M share stake increase at prices between $50.72 and $56.17. The previous significant activity was in Q2 2013: over 18M shares were purchased at the time at prices between $34.66 and $38.20. The stock currently trades at $55.52. Berkshire's average cost-basis is at around $25.
Stake Decreases:
Bank of New York Mellon Corp (NYSE:BK): BK is a 0.78% of the US stock portfolio stake. The bulk of the original position was purchased in Q2 2012 at prices between $19.51 and $24.67. The stake was increased by 30% in Q2 2013 at prices between $26.70 and $30.55 and since then had been kept relatively steady. Last three quarters have seen a combined ~16% reduction at prices between $35.95 and $41.53. The stock currently trades at $43.09.
Charter Communications (NASDAQ:CHTR): CHTR is a 1.08% of the US long portfolio position. It was established in Q2 2014 at prices between $118 and $158 and more than doubled in Q3 2014 at prices between $151 and $164. Last quarter saw a further ~25% increase at prices between $140 and $170. This quarter saw a minor ~3.5% reduction. The stock currently trades at around $181.
National Oilwell Varco Inc. (NYSE:NOV): NOV is a minutely small 0.09% of the US long portfolio stake. The original position was established in Q2 2012 at prices between $60 and $80.67. It was increased by ~19% in Q2 2013 at prices between $64.14 and $71.57. Last four quarters have seen a combined ~78% reduction at prices between $47.46 and $65.53. The stock currently trades at $51.27.
NOTE: The implied performance of this position by the prices quoted above is negatively skewed because of the effect of National Oilwell Varco's NOW Inc. spinoff. The terms called for NOV shareholders to receive one share of NOW Inc. for every four shares of NOV held.
Liberty Global PLC (NASDAQ:LBTYA) (NASDAQ:LBTYK): The minutely small 0.25% position in Liberty Global established in Q4 2013 at prices between $37.50 and $44.50 (adjusted for the 03/2014 stock-split) was increased significantly to a 0.57% position in Q1 2014 at prices between $40.37 and $46. The stake was further increased by ~17% in the following quarter at prices between $38.49 and $45.61. Last two quarters had seen marginal buying while this quarter saw a marginal reduction. The stock currently trades at $49.43 and the stake is at 0.84% of the US long portfolio.
MasterCard Inc. (NYSE:MA), Viacom (NASDAQ:VIAB), Visa Inc. (NYSE:V), & Wabco Holdings (NYSE:WBC): These are very small (less than ~0.60% of the US long portfolio each) stakes that were decreased marginally this quarter. Berkshire controls 6.6% of Wabco Holdings.
Kept Steady:
Restaurant Brands International (NYSE:QSR): QSR is a 0.30% of the US long portfolio position established last quarter at prices between $35 and $42. The stock currently trades just outside that range at $42.14. The stock started trading in December 2014 following a merger/rename transaction between Tim Hortons and Burger King Worldwide - QSR has already increased ~22% since the first day of trading (12/10/2014). There was heavy activist involvement previously and the latest filing show Bill Ackman directly owning 38M shares (18.80% of business). Berkshire's stake in the business is at around 4.2%.
Suncor Energy (NYSE:SU): SU is a small 0.61% of the US long portfolio position first purchased in Q2 2013 at prices between $27.40 and $32. Last year saw a ~24% increase at prices between $27.74 and $43.08. The stock currently trades at $30.42.
DaVita Inc. (NYSE:DVA): DVA is a 2.93% of the US long portfolio position that was aggressively built-up over several quarters: the original stake was doubled in Q1 2012, increased by over 50% in Q2 2012, 24% in Q4 2012, and an additional 16% in Q1 2013. There has been marginal buying since. The bulk of the stake build-up happened at prices between $30 and $49. The stock currently trades at around $81.48. In May 2013, Berkshire's Ted Weschler signed an accord with DVA, limiting open-market purchases to 25% of the company- the position is currently at 17.9% of the business.
DIRECTV (NASDAQ:DTV): DTV is a 2.49% position first purchased in Q3 2011. The bulk of the current stake was purchased in Q4 2011 at prices between $40.60 and $47.87. In Q2 2014, the position was reduced by around one-third at prices between $74 and $88.25. In Q3 2014, the pattern reversed: a ~28% stake increase at prices between $83.55 and $87.72 and that was followed with a ~5% increase last quarter at prices between $82.56 and $87.89. The stock currently trades at around $91.46. AT&T (NYSE:T) is in the process of acquiring DTV in a $95 per share cash-and-stock deal ($28.50 per share cash and the rest in stock protected with a collar).
General Motors (NYSE:GM): GM is a 1.44% of the US long portfolio position that was first purchased in Q1 2012 at prices between $21 and $30. The stake was increased by 60% in Q2 2013 at prices between $27.53 and $35.03. Q1 2014 saw a 25% reduction at prices between $34 and $41 and in the following quarter there was an about-turn: 9.86% increase at prices between $31.93 and $37.09. Q3 2014 saw another ~21% increase at prices between $31.94 and $37.97 and last quarter saw a marginal increase. The stock currently trades at $34.91.
American Express (NYSE:AXP), Coca-Cola, and Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG): These are very large stakes that were kept steady during the last two years. Buffett has said these positions will be held "permanently". Berkshire's cost-basis on AXP, KO, and PG are at around $8.49, $3.25, and $6.40 and ownership stakes are at 14.8%, 9.2%, and 1.9% respectively.
Chicago Bridge & Iron (NYSE:CBI): CBI is a 0.57% of the US long portfolio position that was increased by 47% in Q2 2013 at prices between $50.92 and $63.75. Last quarter saw a 12% stake increase at prices between $65.51 and $87.65. The original position was purchased in Q1 2013 at prices between $46 and $62. The stock currently trades at $55.01. Berkshire controls 9.9% of the business. For investors attempting to follow Berkshire, CBI is a good option to consider for further research.
Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS): GS is 2.22% of the US long portfolio stake established in Q4 2013. Berkshire Hathaway received $5B worth of warrants to buy GS stock during the financial crisis (October 2008) at a strike price of $115 (43.5M shares) that was to expire October 1, 2013. Buffett exercised the right before expiry to start this long position. GS currently trades at $203.
Liberty Media (NASDAQ:LMCA) (NASDAQ:LMCK): LMCA is a petite 0.43% stake first purchased in Q4 2011. It was increased by ~75% in Q1 2012 and roughly doubled the next quarter. Q2 2014 saw a ~24% stake reduction and since then has been kept steady.
Moody's Inc. (NYSE:MCO): MCO is a 2.39% of the US long portfolio stake that was decreased by 14% in Q2 2013 at prices between $52.23 and $68.62. The stock currently trades at $110. Buffett's cost basis is ~$10 and so he is sitting on large long-term gains on the ten-bagger. The stock returned around 48% in 2013, 23% in 2014, and another ~13% so far this year. Berkshire controls 11.5% of the business.
USG Corporation (NYSE:USG): USG is a very long-term holding and there was a significant 21.39M share stake increase in Q4 2013 due to conversion of notes at $11.40 per share - Berkshire acquired the convertible notes during the financial crisis (2/2009) and USG opted to redeem them on 12/16/2013. Q2 2014 saw a ~11.5% stake increase at prices between $29.57 and $33.16. The stock currently trades at $28.10. Buffett controls around 27% of the business and overall cost-basis is at around $19.
VeriSign Inc. (NASDAQ:VRSN): VRSN was first purchased in Q4 2012 at prices between $34.15 and $49.48. The position was more than doubled in Q1 2013 at prices between $38 and $48 and another one-third the following quarter at prices between $44.39 and $49.27. Q1 & Q2 2014 also saw a combined ~17% increase at prices between $47 and $63. The stock currently trades at $64.09. The current position is at ~10% of the business although as a percentage of the portfolio the stake is still very small at 0.81%.
Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ): VZ is a small 0.68% of the US long portfolio position established in Q1 2014 at prices between $46 and $49.30. It was increased by ~36% the following quarter at prices between $45.94 and $50.05. The stock currently trades at $49.79.
Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE:WMT): WMT stake was first purchased in 2005. It has since been built up to a 4.64% position (top-five stake). The position was increased by 4% in Q1 2013 at prices between $68 and $75 and another 17% in Q1 2014 at prices between $72.66 and $78.91. The stock currently trades at $79.24. Berkshire's cost-basis on the position is at around $56.
Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST), General Electric (NYSE:GE), Graham Holdings (NYSE:GHC), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Kraft Foods Group (NASDAQ:KRFT), Lee Enterprises (NYSE:LEE), M&T Bank (NYSE:MTB), Media General (NYSE:MEG), Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ), NOW Inc. (NYSE:DNOW), Sanofi (NYSE:SNY), Torchmark Corporation (NYSE:TMK), United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS), Verisk Analytics (NASDAQ:VRSK), : These are minutely small positions (less than ~0.5% of the portfolio each) kept steady this quarter. Although the relative size of the position is small, it should be noted that Berkshire controls 3.6% of Media General. The DNOW position was established in Q2 2014 as a result of National Oilwell Varco's spin-off of its distribution business. Also, per the annual report, Berkshire has a $2.03B position in Sanofi - so in addition to the 13F securities listed in the spreadsheet, Berkshire also owns Sanofi securities listed in Euronext Paris. The only other large non-US individual stock position reported in the AR is Munich RE at $4B (11.8% of the business).
Note: Tesco plc (OTCPK:TSCDY) was another position listed in the 2013 annual report. Berkshire liquidated that stake in 2014: sold 301M shares and realized $444M in losses.
Is McDonald's Losing Its Economic Castle?
Summary
- Is there really much to like about McDonald's anymore?
- Let's walk through its challenges, and whether it means the company's Economic Castle is deteriorating.
- We give our high-level thoughts on the turnaround plan and disclose our fair value estimate of shares.
- We also have some interesting ideas at the end of the article that many may be overlooking.
What in the world is an Economic Castle?
Berkshire Hathaway's Warren Buffett has popularized the concept of an "economic moat," perhaps best described in common language as sustainable competitive advantages. But an Economic Castle? Are we just confused?
In short, no.
Whereas economic moat analysis focuses on the duration of a company's economic profit stream, as measured by return on invested capital less the costs of which to attain that capital, economic castle analysis focuses on the magnitude of economic profit creation over the realizable near term.
Unlike the substantial duration risk inherent to predicting economic profits 20, 30 or more years into the future, the economic castle framework posits that the strongest performing companies during certain phases of the economic cycle will be those that generate the most economic value over the foreseeable future.
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