myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Tuesday 29 November 2011

Iceland wins in the end

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Economics Last updated: November 28th, 2011

The OECD has come very close to predicting a depression for Europe unless EU leaders conjure up a lender-of-last resort very quickly, and somehow manage to make the world believe that the EFSF bail-out fund really exists.

Even if disaster is avoided, the eurozone growth forecast is dreadful. Italy, Portugal, Greece will all contract through 2012, while Spain, France, Netherlands, and Germany will bounce along the bottom.

Unemployment will reach 18.5pc in Greece, 22.9pc in Spain, 14.1pc in Ireland, 13.8pc in Portugal.

Yet Iceland stands out, with 2.4pc growth and unemployment tumbling to 6.1. Well, well.

Here is the box from the OECD.

Iceland's policy of drastic devaluation with capital controls has not proved to be the disaster that so many foretold. Its refusal to accept the full burden of private bank losses has not turned the country into leper-land.

The nation has held its social fabric together. Had Iceland been in the eurozone, it would have been forced to pursue the same reactionary polices of "internal devaluation" and debt deflation being inflicted today on the mass ranks of unemployed across the arc of depression.

Sorry I could not resist posting this. Shame on me.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100013462/iceland-wins-in-the-end/

Padini

Company Name	:	PADINI HOLDINGS BERHAD
Stock Name	:	PADINI
Date Announced	:	26/08/2011

Financial Year End	:	30/06/2011
Quarter	:	4
Quarterly report for the financial period ended	:	30/06/2011
The figures	:	have not been audited

Converted attachment :

Please attach the full Quarterly Report here:

PHB_FY11_Q4_Explanatory_Notes_to_Accounts.doc

PHB FY11 Q4_Interim Financial Statements 30 June 2011.xls


Currency	:	Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION

30/06/2011

		INDIVIDUAL PERIOD		CUMULATIVE PERIOD
		CURRENT YEAR QUARTER	PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING QUARTER	CURRENT YEAR TO DATE	PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING PERIOD
		30/06/2011	30/06/2010	30/06/2011	30/06/2010
		$$'000	$$'000	$$'000	$$'000
1	Revenue	132,146	114,389	558,561	522,949
2	Profit/(loss) before tax	25,363	18,817	104,632	86,280
3	Profit/(loss) for the period	18,076	12,041	75,295	60,974
4	Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent	18,076	12,041	75,295	60,974
5	Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)	2.75	1.83	11.44	9.27
6	Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)	2.00	3.00	4.00	4.50

		AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER		AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7	Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)	0.4300		0.3600

Remarks :

Note that the figures reported for item 6 for the 3 months and the 12 months ended 30 June 2010 respectively have been adjusted for a share split completed in January 2011

12 Months ending 30.6.2011
Annual audited account

Income statement

Revenue 568.476m
Gross profit 290.804m
Profit from operations 106.630m
PBT 105.057m
PAT 75.694m

Finance costs (1.573m)
Taxation (29.363m)

EPS of RM 0.10 each (sen)
-Basic 11.51 sen

Balance Sheet

NCA 94.585m
CA 349.754m
TOTAL ASSETS 444.339m

TOTAL EQUITY 282.677m
NCL 23.715m
CL 137.947m
TOTAL LIABILITIES 161.662m
TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES 444.339m

Net asset value per share RM 0.43

Inventories 170.955m
Receivables 39.433m
Payables 93.940m

Deposits, cash and bank balances 138.622m
LT borrowings 22.151m
ST borrowings 24.948m

Cash flow statement

PBT 105.057m
Operating profit before working capital changes 129.019m
Cash generated from operations after working capital changes 60.017m

Net cash (used in)/generated from operating activities (2.104m)
Net cash used in investing activities (2.276m)
Net cash generated from financing activities 8.773m

Depreciation of PPE 21.864m
Inventories written down to net realisable value 1.983m

Proceeds from disposal of financial assets at fair value through profit or loss 21.106m
Purchase of PPE (24.728m)

Dividends
30.6.2011 (26.316m)
30.6.2010 (29.606m)

Shares
Number of shares in issue as at 1 July 2011 131.582m
Effect of share split 526.328m
The weighted average number of ordinary shares in issue: 657.910m
Share split was completed on 6.1.2011.

There were no shares in issuance which would have a dilutive effect on the earnings per share of the Group.

Market Watch

Recent Financial Results

Announcement Date	Financial Yr. End	Qtr	Period End	Revenue RM '000	Profit/Lost RM'000	EPS	Amended
26-Aug-11	30-Jun-11	4	30-Jun-11	132,146	18,076	2.75	-
30-May-11	30-Jun-11	3	31-Mar-11	147,960	24,386	3.71	-
25-Feb-11	30-Jun-11	2	31-Dec-10	141,814	14,484	11.01#	2.203#
29-Nov-10	30-Jun-11	1	30-Sep-10	136,641	18,349	13.95#	2.791#

#EPS adjusted for share split

ttm-EPS 11.45 sen

Price RM 1.08

Trailing PE 9.4x

Share Price Performance

	High		Low
Prices 1 Month	1.080	(28-Nov-11)	0.985	(11-Nov-11)
Prices 3 Months	1.110	(13-Oct-11)	0.820	(26-Sep-11)
Prices 12 Months	5.560	(29-Dec-10)	0.820	(26-Sep-11)
Volume 12 Months	31,695	(14-Jun-11)	60	(29-Nov-10)

Padini Holdings Berhad Company Snapshot
Business Description:
Padini Holdings Berhad operates in the Women's clothing stores sector. Padini Holdings Berhad is a Malaysia-based investment holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company acts as dealers of ladies' shoes and accessories; acts as dealers of garments and ancillary products; acts as dealers of children's garments, maternity wear and accessories, and provision of management services. During the fiscal year ended June 30, 2010 (fiscal 2010), the Company had a total of 137 stores-within-store. In fiscal 2010, the Company's subsidiaries were Vincci Ladies' Specialties Centre Sdn. Bhd., Padini Corporation Sdn. Bhd., Seed Corporation Sdn. Bhd., Yee Fong Hung (Malaysia) Sendirian Berhad, Mikihouse Children's Wear Sdn. Bhd., Padini Dot Com Sdn. Bhd., Padini International Limited, Vincci Holdings Sdn. Bhd. and The New World Garment Manufacturers Sdn. Bhd.

Stock Data: Recent Stock Performance:

Current Price (11/18/2011): 1.03
(Figures in Malaysian Ringgits)
1 Week 2.0% 13 Weeks -1.0%

4 Weeks 9.6% 52 Weeks -3.2%

Padini Holdings Berhad Key Data:

2011 Sales 568,476,000
(Year Ending Jan 2012).
Employees: 1,762
Market Cap: 677,646,785
Shares Outstanding: 657,909,500
Closely Held Shares: 472,861,460

Stock Performance Chart for Padini Holdings Berhad

Stock Performance Chart for Padini Holdings Berhad

23.11.2011

Padini 1.030
PE 8.96x
DY 3.88%
Market cap RM 677.6

Monday 28 November 2011

Guinness Anchor Berhad

Company Name	:	GUINNESS ANCHOR BERHAD
Stock Name	:	GAB
Date Announced	:	02/11/2011

Financial Year End	:	30/06/2012
Quarter	:	1
Quarterly report for the financial period ended	:	30/09/2011
The figures	:	have not been audited

Converted attachment :

Please attach the full Quarterly Report here:

Financial Report Sept 11.pdf

Press Release Nov 2011.pdf


Currency	:	Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION

30/09/2011

		INDIVIDUAL PERIOD		CUMULATIVE PERIOD
		CURRENT YEAR QUARTER	PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING QUARTER	CURRENT YEAR TO DATE	PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING PERIOD
		30/09/2011	30/09/2010	30/09/2011	30/09/2010
		$$'000	$$'000	$$'000	$$'000
1	Revenue	444,623	366,631	444,623	366,631
2	Profit/(loss) before tax	73,607	51,638	73,607	51,638
3	Profit/(loss) for the period	55,208	38,695	55,208	38,695
4	Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent	55,208	38,695	55,208	38,695
5	Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)	18.28	12.81	18.28	12.81
6	Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

		AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER		AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7	Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)	1.8900		1.7100

Remarks :

This announcement is dated 2 November 2011.

Cumulative Period 3 Months ending 30/9/2011

Income Statement

Revenue 444.623m
Profit from operations 73.630m
PBT 73.607m
PAT 55.208m

EPS
Basic 18.28 sen

Shares
302.098m

Interest
Interest income 1.271m
Interest expense 0.017m

Taxation 18.399m

Balance Sheet

NCA 230.521m
CA 558.786m
TOTAL ASSETS 789.307m

CL 184.885m
NCL 32.592m
TOTAL LIABILITIES 217.477m
TOTAL EQUITY 571.830m
TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES 789.307m

Net assets per share 1.89 sen

Inventories 66.378m
Trade and other receivables 325.402m
Trade and other payables 176.172m

Cash and cash equivalents 153.981m
ST borrowings -
LT borrowings -

Cash flow statements

PBT 73.607m
Operating profit before changes in working capital 80.341m
Cash generated from operations after changes in working capital 3.413m

Net cash from operating activities (11.904m)
Net cash used in investing activities (3.892m)
Net cash used in financing activity -

Acquisition of PPE (3.094m)

Dividends paid
30.9.2011 -
30.9.2011 -

Prospects
No further increase in the current excise tax rate in the national budget 2012 augurs well for the MLM. Furthermore, the Group remains committed to keep driving its competitive performance in Malaysia and is confident in its ability to continue to build its brands profitably.

However, there are several factors which may affect the MLM performance including the overall Malaysian economic performance and the uncertain global economic climate. Therefore, the Group remains cautiously optimistic of its future performance and will strive to deliver another year of success in the financial year 2012.

The weighted average number of ordinary stock units outstanding as at 30 September 2011: 302.098m.

Market Watch

Recent Financial Results

Announcement Date	Financial Yr. End	Qtr	Period End	Revenue RM '000	Profit/Lost RM'000	EPS	Amended
02-Nov-11	30-Jun-12	1	30-Sep-11	444,623	55,208	18.28	-
04-Aug-11	30-Jun-11	4	30-Jun-11	348,759	29,076	9.63	-
04-Aug-11	30-Jun-11	4	30-Jun-11	348,759	29,076	9.63	-
05-May-11	30-Jun-11	3	31-Mar-11	351,916	48,972	16.21	-

Share Price Performance

	High		Low
Prices 1 Month	11.060	(09-Nov-11)	10.400	(11-Nov-11)
Prices 3 Months	11.060	(09-Nov-11)	9.400	(27-Sep-11)
Prices 12 Months	11.060	(09-Nov-11)	8.960	(29-Nov-10)
Volume 12 Months	9,107	(13-Jan-11)	10	(20-Apr-11)

Guinness Anchor Berhad Company Snapshot
Business Description:
Guinness Anchor Berhad operates in the Beer and ale sector. Guinness Anchor Berhad (GAB) is a Malaysia-based company engaged in malt liquor brewing, including production, packaging, marketing and distribution of its products principally in Malaysia. The Company's brand names are Tiger, Guinness, Heineken, Anchor Smooth, Anchor Strong, Kilkenny, Anglia Shandy, Malta, Paulaner, Strongbow and Sol. Its subsidiaries include Guinness Anchor Marketing Sdn Bhd, which is engaged in marketing and promotion of beverages, primarily alcoholic in Malaysia, and Ramaha Corporation (M) Sdn Bhd, which is engaged in property holding and land development. The Company also markets its products to other Southeast Asian countries.

Stock Data: Recent Stock Performance:

Current Price (11/18/2011): 10.92
(Figures in Malaysian Ringgits)
1 Week 1.9% 13 Weeks 4.6%

4 Weeks 7.5% 52 Weeks 18.7%

Guinness Anchor Berhad Key Data:

2011 Sales 1,488,720,000
(Year Ending Jan 2012).
Employees: 500
Market Cap: 3,298,910,160
Shares Outstanding: 302,098,000
Closely Held Shares: 221,216,118

Stock Performance Chart for Guinness Anchor Berhad

Stock Performance Chart for Guinness Anchor Berhad

23.11.2011

Price 10.86
PE 16.58x
DY 4.97%
Market cap 3280.8m

My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Tuesday 29 November 2011

Iceland wins in the end

Padini

Market Watch

Monday 28 November 2011

Guinness Anchor Berhad

Market Watch

All equity security investments present a risk of loss of capital

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Benjamin Graham

Sell the losers, let the winners run.

Investment Style

Warren Buffett

Political and Economic News

Interesting Blogs