Tuesday 23 March 2010

Malaysia Dilemma


Only political change can bring economic reforms, says Ku Li

By Debra Chong
PETALING JAYA, March 23 — Saying that only political change can bring economic reforms to Malaysia, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah (picture) last night blamed the Najib administration for crippling the national economy by putting politics ahead of policy reforms.
In his sharpest barb yet directed at  Datuk Seri Najib Razak, the Umno veteran urged the prime minister to end race-based affirmative programmes in the New Economic Policy (NEP) drawn up 40 years ago which he said was a cover for “corruption, crony capitalism and money politics”.
“To make that leap we need a government capable of promoting radical reform. That is not going to happen without political change,” the Kelantan prince and former finance minister said when launching the second edition of  “No Cowardly Past” by lawyer James Puthucheary here last night. Puthucheary, who was once a politician and economist, died 10 years ago.
The Gua Musang MP mocked Najib for delaying announcing his proposed New Economic Model (NEM) and suggested that the new policy may only be a rehash of the “old” NEP, drawing chuckles from the audience.
The chuckles stopped when the 73-year-old reminded his audience how deeply race-based policies had scored themselves in the minds of the powerful few, noting that the NEP was dragged back to life by Umno Youth six years ago because “it was and remains the most low-cost way to portray oneself as a Malay champion.”
“The NEP is over. I ask the government to have the courage to face up to this,” he added.
He called on the Najib administration to restore independence in public institutions and to overhaul the education system and repeal “repressive laws” such as the Printing Presses Act, the Universities and Colleges Act, the Internal Security Act and the Official Secrets Act.
“Confidence in the rule of law is a basic condition of economic growth,” said the politician popularly known as Ku Li.
Tengku Razaleigh added that “radical reform” and not “piecemeal measures” was needed to move the economy forward but strongly suggested that it may not be possible under the present leadership.
Asked to clarify his meaning, Ku Li explained that Najib needs to move fast and translate his proposed policies into action to plug the swift drain of talent out of the country.
Najib is now in Hong Kong to promote Malaysia to fund managers and investors at the Credit Suisse’s 13th Asian Investment Conference which starts today.
The Prime Minister is due to receive a report on the NEM which he announced when taking office last April. The report and policies will be fully announced in June when Najib tables the 10th Malaysia Plan as the government wants public feedback to shape the NEM.
Malay right-wing groups have said the NEM must be guided by the NEP which was officially abandoned in 1990 and subsumed into the National Development Policy which ran from 1991 to 2000.
Tengku Razaleigh, who was unsuccessful in challenging Najib for the Umno presidency last year, remains a harsh critic of the ruling Barisan Nasional government policies particularly its refusal to give 5 per cent oil royalty to his home state Kelantan.
However, he has pledged loyalty to Umno despite calls to quit his Gua Musang seat and his division leadership. The opposition Pakatan Rakyat has privately urged him to join them but he has declined the offer.

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/index.php/malaysia/57168-only-political-change-can-bring-economic-reforms-says-ku-li


Read the full speech here:


The leap we need to make — Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah

MARCH 23 — James Puthucheary lived what is by any measure an extraordinary and eventful life. He was, among  other things, a scholar, anti-colonial activist, poet, political economist and lawyer.
The thread running through these roles was his struggle for progressive politics in a multiracial society. His actions were informed by an acute sense of history and by a commitment to a more equitable and just Malaysia.
James was concerned about economic development in a way that was Malaysian in the best sense. His thinking was motivated by a concerned for socioeconomic equity and for the banishment of communalism and ethnic chauvinism from our politics.
The launch of the Second Edition of this collection of James Puthucheary’s writings, “No Cowardly Past”, invites us to think and speak about our country with intellectual honesty and courage.
Let me put down some propositions, as plainly as I can, about where I think we stand.
1. Our political system has broken down in a way that cannot be salvaged by piecemeal reform.
2. Our public institutions are compromised by politics (most disturbingly by racial politics) and by money. This is to say they have become biased, inefficient and corrupt.
3. Our economy has stagnated. Our growth is based on the export of natural resources.  Productivity remains low. We now lag our regional competitors in the quality of our people, when we were once leaders in the developing world.
4. Points 1) -3), regardless of official denials and mainstream media spin, is common knowledge. As a result, confidence is at an all time low. We are suffering debilitating levels of brain and capital drain.
Today I wanted to share some suggestions on how we might move the economy forward, but our economic stagnation is clearly not something we can tackle or even discuss in isolation from the problem of a broken political system and a compromised set of public institutions.
This country is enormously blessed with talent and natural resources. We are shielded from natural calamities and enjoy warm weather all year round. We are blessed to be located at the crossroads of India and China and the Indonesian archipelago.
We are blessed to have cultural kinship with China, India, the Middle East and Indonesia. We attained independence with an enviable institutional framework.
We were a federation with a Constitution that is the supreme law of the land, a parliamentary democracy, an independent judiciary, a common law system and an independent civil service. We had political parties with a strong base of support that produced talented political leadership.
We have no excuse for our present state of economic and social stagnation. It is because we have allowed that last set of features, our institutional and political framework, to be eroded, that all our advantages are not better realized.
So it makes little sense to talk glibly about selecting growth drivers, fine-tuning our industrial or trade policy, and so on, without acknowledging that our economy is in bad shape because our political system is in bad shape.
A case in point is the so called New Economic Model.  The government promised the world it would be announced by the end of last year. It was put off to the end of this month. Now we are told we will be getting just the first part of it,  and that we will be getting merely a proposal for the New Economic Model from the NEAC.  Clearly, politics has intruded. The NEM has been opposed by groups that are concerned that the NEM might replace the NEP.  The New Economic Model might not turn out to be so new after all.
The NEP
The irony in all this is that there is nothing to replace.  The NEP is the opposite of New. It is defunct and is no longer an official government policy because it was replaced by the New Development Policy (another old New policy) in 1991. The “NEP” was brought back in its afterlife as a slogan by the leadership of UMNO Youth in 2004. It was and remains the most low-cost way to portray oneself as a Malay champion.
Thus, at a time when we are genuinely need of bold new economic measures, we are hamstrung by by the ghost of dead policies with the word New in them.  What happens when good policy outlives its time and survives as a slogan?
The NEP was a twenty year programme. It has become, in the imaginations of some, the centre of a permanently racialized socio-economic framework.
Tun Ismail and Tun Razak, in the age of the fixed telephone (you even needed to go through an operator), thought twenty years would be enough. Its champions in the age of instant messaging talk about 100 or 450 years of Malay dependency.
It had a national agenda to eradicate poverty and address structural inequalities between the races for the sake of equity and unity. The Malays were unfairly concentrated in low income sectors such as agriculture. The aim was to remove colonial era silos of economic roles in our economy. It has been trivialized into a concern with obtaining equity and contracts by racial quotas. The NEP was to diversify the Malay economy beyond certain stereotyped occupations.   It is now about feeding a class of party- linked people whose main economic function is to obtain and re-sell government contracts and concessions.
The NEP saw poverty as a national, Malaysian problem that engaged the interest and idealism of all Malaysians. People like James Puthucheary were at the forefront of articulating this concern.  Its present-day proponents portray poverty as a communal problem.
The NEP was a unity policy.  Nowhere in its terms was any race specified. It has been reinvented as an inalienable platform of a Malay Agenda that at one and the same time asserts Malay supremacy and perpetuates the myth of Malay dependency.
It was meant to unite our citizens by making economic arrangements fairer, and de-racializing our economy. In its implementation it became a project to enrich a selection of Malay capitalists. James Puthucheary had warned, back in 1959, that this was bound to fail. “The presence of Chinese capitalists has not noticeably helped solve the poverty of Chinese households.. Those who think that the economic position of the Malays can be improved by creating a few Malay capitalists, thus making a few Malays well-to-do, will have to think again. “
The NEP’s aim to restructure society and to ensure a more equitable distribution of economic growth was justified on principles of social justice, not claims of racial privilege. This is an important point. The NEP was acceptable to all Malaysians because its justification was universal rather than racial, ethical rather than opportunistic. It appealed to Malaysians’ sense of social justice and not to any notion of racial supremacy.
We were a policy with a 20 year horizon, in pursuit of a set of measurable outcomes. We were not devising a doctrine for a permanent socio-economic arrangement. We did not make the damaging assumption of the permanently dependent Malay.
Today we are in a foundational crisis both of our politics and of our economy. Politically and economically, we have come to the end of the road for an old way of managing things. It is said you can fool some of the people some of the time, but not all of the people all the time. Well these days the time you have in which to fool people is measured in minutes, not years.
The world is greatly changed. The next move we must make is not a step but a leap that changes the very ground we play on.
The NEP is over. I ask the government to have the courage to face up to this. The people already know. The real issue is not whether the NEP is to be continued or not, but whether we have the imagination and courage to come up with something which better addresses the real challenges of growth, equity and unity of our time.
At its working best the NEP secured national unity and provided a stable foundation for economic growth. Taken out of its policy context (a context that James helped frame) and turned into a political programme for the extension of special privilege, it has been distorted into something that its formulators, people such as the late Tun Razak and Tun Ismail, would have absolutely abhorred: it is now the primary justification and cover for corruption, crony capitalism and money politics, and it is corruption, cronyism and money politics that rob us and destroy our future.
No one who really cares about our country can approve of the role the NEP now plays in distorting the way we think about the economy, of our people, of our future, and retarded our ability to formulate forward-looking economic strategy.
The need for a wholistic approach to development based on the restoration and building of confidence.
We need a wholistic approach to development that takes account of the full potential of our society and of our people as individuals. We need an approach to development that begins with the nurturing and empowerment of the human spirit. Both personally and as a society, this means we look for the restoration of confidence in ourselves, who we are, what we are capable of, and the future before us.
I return to the question of the Middle Income Trap that I alluded to some time ago. I am glad that notion has since been taken up by the Government.
The middle income trap is a condition determined by the quality of our people and of the institutions that bind them. It is not something overcome simply by growing more oil palm or extracting more oil and gas.  Our economic challenge is to improve the quality of our people and institutions. Making the break from the middle-income trap is in the first place a social, cultural, educational and institutional challenge. Let me just list what needs to be done. Before we can pursue meaningful economic strategy we need to get our house in order. We need to:
1. undertake bold reforms to restore the independence of the police, the anti-corruption commission and the judiciary. Confidence in the rule of law is a basic condition of economic growth.
2. reform the civil service
3. wage all out war on corruption
4. thoroughly revamp our education system
5. repeal  the Printing Presses Act, the Universities and Colleges Act, the ISA and the OSA. These repressive laws only serve to create a climate of timidity and fear which is the opposite of the flourishing of talent and ideas that we say we want.
6. Replace the NEP with an equity and unity policy (a kind of “New Deal”) to bring everyone, regardless of race, gender, or what state they live in and who they voted for, into the economic mainstream.
These reforms are the necessary foundation for any particular economic strategies. Many of these reforms will take time.  Educational reform is the work of many years. But that is no excuse not to start, confidence will return immediately if that start is bold. As for particular economic strategies, there are many we can pursue:
* We need to tap our advantage in having a  high savings rate.  Thanks to a lot of forced savings, our savings rate is about 38%. We need more productive uses for the massive funds held in EPF. LTH, LTAT and PNB than investment in an already over-capitalized stock market.  One suggestion is to make strategic investments internationally in broad growth sectors such as minerals. Another is that we should use these funds to enable every Malaysian to own their own home. This would stimulate the construction sector with its large multiplier of activities and bring about a stakeholder society. A fine example of how this is done is Singapore’s use of savings in CPF to fund property purchases.
* The Government  could make sure that the the land office and local government, developers and house-buyers are coordinated through a one-stop agency under the Ministry of Housing and and Local Government. This would get everyone active, right down to the level of local authorities. The keys to unleashing this activity are financing and a radical streamlining of local government approvals.
* We have been living off a drip of oil and cheap foreign labour. Dependence on these easy sources of revenue has dulled our competitiveness and prevented the growth of high income jobs.  We need a moratorium on the hiring of low skilled foreign labour that is paired with a very aggressive effort to increase the productivity and wages of Malaysian labour. Higher wages would mean we could retain more of our skilled labour and other talent.
* Five years ago I called for a project to make Malaysia an oil and gas services and trading hub for East Asia. Oil and gas activities will bring jobs to some of our poorest states. We should not discriminate against those states on the basis of their political affiliations. No one is better placed by natural advantage to develop this hub. Meanwhile Singapore, with not a drop of oil, has moved ahead on this front.
* We should ready ourselves to tap the wealth of the emerging middle class of China, India and Indonesia in providing services such as tourism, medical care and education. That readiness can come in the form of streamlined procedures, language preparation, and targeted infrastructure development.
These are just some ideas for some of the many things we could do to ensure our prosperity. Others may have better ideas.
Conclusion
We are in a foundational crisis of our political system. People can no longer see what lies ahead of us, and all around us they see signs of decaying institutions. Wealth and talent will continue to leave the country in droves.
To reverse that exodus we need to restore confidence in the country. We do not get confidence back  with piecemeal economic measures but with bold reforms to restore transparency, accountability and legitimacy to our institutions. Confidence will return if people see decisive leadership motivated by a sincere for the welfare of the country.  The opposite occurs if they see decisions motivated by short term politics. Nevermind FDI, if Malaysians started investing in Malaysia, and stopped leaving, or started coming back, we would see a surge in growth.
In the same measure we also need to break the stranglehold of communal politics and racial policy if we want to be a place where an economy driven by ideas and skills can flourish. This must be done, and it must be done now. We have a small window of time left before we fall into a spiral of political, social and economic decline from which we will not emerge for decades.
This is the leap we need to make, but to make that leap we need a government capable of promoting radical reform. That is not going to happen without political change. We should not underestimate the ability of our citizens to transcend lies, distortions and myths and get behind the best interest of the country. In this they are far ahead of our present leadership, and our leadership should listen to them.
* Speech by Gua Musang MP Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah at the launch of the Second Edition of “No Cowardly Past: James Puthucheary, Writings, Poems, Commentaries” at the PJ Civic Centre on March 22, 2010.
* This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication. The Malaysian Insider does not endorse the view unless specified.


Comment:  Analogous to the story of Nero and Rome!

KNM's shareholders facing uncertainties




KNM: No extension for BlueFire




KNM Group Bhd (7164) said it will not extend BlueFire Capital Group Ltd's exclusivity period for due diligence, which expired yesterday.

BlueFire, an entity controlled by founder and group managing director Lee Swee Eng, had offered to buy out KNM at 90 sen per share, valuing the process equipment maker at RM3.6 billion.

Lee, together with GS Capital Partners VI Fund LP, a private equity fund of the Goldman Sachs Group Inc, and Mettiz Capital Ltd, had made a conditional offer to buy KNM's assets on February 4.

The offer was conditional upon a due diligence that should be completed by March 22 and which includes a final valuation of the assets within the group. Lee owns 23.64 per cent of KNM.

In a filing to Bursa Malaysia yesterday, KNM said BlueFire is "still in continued discussions with the company and the parties have agreed to endeavour to conclude discussions by April 16, 2010".
It added that an announcement will be made on the outcome of such discussions when they are concluded.

Over 90 per cent of KNM's revenues are realised from the export markets and international business.

KNM posted a loss of RM31 million for its fourth quarter ended December 31 2009, which was a significant dip from its third quarter profit of RM32 million.

As a result of the poor fourth quarter, KNM's full-year 2009 net profit almost halved to RM171 million, compared with the previous year's RM336.4 million.

The main reason for the poor fourth quarter was due to provisioning for the foreseeable losses in its operations in Brazil, Canada and Indonesia, coupled with a revaluation of the group's Canadian properties. It was the result of heightened competition in some of the lower margin business segments of the group.

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/knm22/Article/index_html


Monday 22 March 2010

How interest rates affect your share portfolio


GREG HOFFMAN
November 5, 2009

    When most people hear the term ''interest rates'', they think of the official cash rate (consciously or otherwise). This rate is set by the Reserve Bank board each month and is important because it impacts the cost of short-term finance, including the rates charged on variable rate mortgages.
    The official cash rate is used as both an economic accelerator and handbrake by the Reserve Bank. When economic conditions turn down, as they have over the past 18 months, lower cash rates stimulate economic activity. When the Reserve Bank board believes things are heating up, it raises rates to slow them down; as it has done at its past two monthly meetings.
    It's important to be aware of the official cash rate but there's another rate that should have as big a bearing on your sharemarket investment decisions as the official cash rate does on your mortgage: the 10-year government bond rate. There are several reasons why this is an important rate.
    Firstly, it's a decent guide to future movements in short term rates. In January, buyers of 10-year government bonds were locking in a return of less than 4% for the coming decade. By June, that figure had risen to 5.8%; to anyone tracking this key measure, recent rises in the official cash rate would have come as no surprise.
    Another reason why the 10-year bond rate is important is that it is typically viewed as an investor's ''opportunity cost''.
    As a long term investor, by buying a 10-year government bond you can currently lock in a return of a little over 5.6% for the coming decade.
    As it essentially involves lending money to the Federal Government, the 10-year bond rate is often referred to as the ''risk free interest rate''.
    So, to take on the considerable risk of investing your money in shares, you need to be confident of an average annual return well in excess of this risk-free rate. In this way the 10-year bond rate exerts a ''gravitational pull'' on sharemarket returns; the higher the bond rate, the less a prospective investor will be inclined to pay for shares.
    That's because our hypothetical investor will demand a higher return from the sharemarket to lure them away from the safety of government bonds. And, using this frame of reference, we can intuit a few things about the relative value between the sharemarket and the bond market.
    Back in January, as the sharemarket was approaching a low point, the 10-year bond rate sank below 4%. This meant the gravitational pull on share prices was very weak by historical standards; bonds weren't offering much return compared with the dividend yields provided by a portfolio of blue chip shares.
    Since January, the equation for share investors has become more treacherous; the 10-year bond rate has surged to 5.6% at the same time as share prices have risen strongly. In other words, 10-year bonds look more attractive than they did in January, while stocks look less so after having already risen by so much.
    Capital growth eyed
    Buying a portfolio of Australia's top blue chip stocks will likely provide a dividend return of less than 3.5% over the coming year. So today's buyer is counting on a decent amount of capital growth to ensure they're ahead of the safe-and-sound government bond investor, at the same time as shares have already delivered remarkable returns from their low point.
    It's not impossible that the sharemarket will rise strongly from here, but it's much less likely to do so than it was back in January. Interestingly, though, while short term rates were nudged up this week by the Reserve Bank, the 10-year bond rate has eased a little over the past fortnight - from 5.8% to 5.65%.
    This has occurred in tandem with the past fortnight's sharemarket hiccup. And if both of these trends continue (lower bond rates and a falling stockmarket), then the equation for sharemarket investors will improve once more.
    Our analysts would rarely let broad financial or economic factors stop them buying a good share at a sensible price.
    But it's all part of the backdrop we consider when going about our daily search for sharemarket bargains and provides some useful food for thought.

    The Packer factor in investing


    GREG HOFFMAN
    March 3, 2010
      I’d spent 10 years flitting from one investing approach to another, including stints drawing fancy charts - by hand, no less - and “momentum investing”. That all changed when I picked up Buffett: The making of an American capitalist, by Roger Lowenstein, 14 years ago. It still retains top billing on The Intelligent Investor’s recommended reading list.
      Lowenstein weaves the value investing philosophy deep into the fabric of this eminently readable biography of (arguably) the world’s greatest investor. By its end, I was hooked.
      Value investing made inherent sense to me and Warren Buffett’s investing career, along with other successful value investors mentioned in the book, provided proof of its efficacy.
      Only one Bond
      In my teenage years I’d spend many hours studying the BRW Rich List. Chartists, or “technical analysts” as they are sometimes known, never featured on it. But many fortunes were built with a value-based approach.
      Kerry Packer was a great example. People talk about his “good timing” but it was more a function of buying something when it’s cheap and selling it when it’s not. Despite his emotional investment in the Nine network he was famously willing to sell to Alan Bond for $1.055 billion, of which $200 million was in the form of preference shares in Bond Media.
      Bond combined the Sydney and Melbourne stations he bought from Packer with his Brisbane and Perth television stations, and other radio licences, and floated the lot just before the 1987 sharemarket crash.
      After, Bond companies were sitting on total debts of about $US10 billion, including the $200 million owed to Packer. Bond was unable to pay and Packer took back the Sydney and Melbourne stations plus the Brisbane station in exchange for the preference shares.
      In the wash-up, Packer netted $855 million in cash and got the Brisbane station for free. As he said after the sale in 1987, “you only get one Alan Bond in your lifetime, and I’ve had mine”. It was a classic value play.
      Somewhat less famously, in 1986 Packer bought Valassis, the largest American publisher of advertising inserts for magazines. It was an unloved company struggling against competition from Rupert Murdoch, among others. His private companies made the purchase so it’s difficult to ascertain an accurate price but the oft-quoted figure is $US365 million.
      He set about cutting costs and restoring profitability before selling 51 per cent in a 1992 public float for $US375 million and the remaining 49 per cent in 1997 for $US500 million. Including dividends it’s probable that Packer made almost $1 billion from Valassis, although some put the profit as high as $2 billion.
      Gambling on Crown
      In late 1996, Crown Casino moved from its temporary Galleria site to its present location at Southbank in Melbourne. Building the casino was a long and expensive process so a separately listed company was set up to make the investment.
      The two largest shareholders were Packer’s Consolidated Press and his mate Lloyd Williams’s development company, Hudson Conway. Trading at the temporary site was not strong enough to cover the costs of development and financing, so the company reported losses until well after the Southbank complex was established.
      The 1998 financial year was the first full year of operation at the Southbank site. Sales were up 51 per cent to $977 million, cash flows were $102 million, but a net loss of $350 million was reported including asset write-downs, interest and depreciation. With net debt of $900 million and large headline losses, the share price was languishing.
      Packer took advantage of the pessimism with a takeover offer using a combination of cash and shares in his listed vehicle, PBL. With an outlay of about $1.7 billion, he gained control of one of the world’s largest casinos and PBL went on to make billions out of this transaction as the value of the casino soared.
      Packer, like Buffett, had a temperament suited to buying when the price of an asset was depressed, whether because of a short-term issue or because of depressed markets in general. That’s an approach we’d all do well to cultivate. 
      Reading Roger Lowenstein’s excellent biography of Warren Buffett may well give you a push in the right direction. It certainly did for me.

      William Cheng buys 33.5m Lion Industries shares

      William Cheng buys 33.5m Lion Industries shares


      Written by Joseph Chin
      Monday, 22 March 2010 19:36

      KUALA LUMPUR: Tan Sri William Cheng acquired 33.5 million shares of Lion Industries Corp Bhd at the exercise price of RM1.29 per share from Megasteel Sdn Bhd.

      Lion Industries said on Monday, March 22 the acquisition of the shares was the remaining stake he was to acquire from Megasteel under a put option of 51 million shares.

      He had on Dec 23, 2009 acquired 17.5 million shares also at RM1.29.

      Under the terms of the proposed disposal, Cheng was required to complete the acquisition of 51 million shares, representing 50% of the 102 million shares under the put option, by March 31.

      http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/162060-william-cheng-buys-335m-lion-industries-shares.html

      Comment: Maybe a reason why Mr. Cheng has been selling so many shares in Parkson.

      Billions pour into wind farms


      March 22, 2010 - 3:07PM
        Blow by blow...sheep graze near China's Dabancheng Wind Power Plant. Chinese investment in green power is growing.
        Blow by blow...sheep graze near China's Dabancheng Wind Power Plant. Chinese investment in green power is growing. Photo: Reuters
        China WindPower Group, Iberdrola and Duke Energy will lead development of an estimated $US65 billion ($71 billion) of wind-power plants this year that let utilities reduce their reliance on fossil fuels.
        The estimate from Bloomberg New Energy Finance assumes a 9 per cent increase in global installations of wind turbines this year, adding as much as 41 gigawatts of generation capacity. That's the equivalent of 34 new nuclear power stations.
        Utilities that built natural gas-fired generators during the last decade are increasingly erecting turbines and buying wind power from competitors, tapping a renewable-energy source as governments consider ways to penalize carbon-based fuels.
        ``Wind development is moving fast,'' James Rogers, chairman of Duke, which owns utilities in the US Southeast and Midwest, said in London. 

        Housing at these prices will leave us all a heavy debt to bear


        March 23, 2010

          Average buyers can't compete with rich, tax-subsidised investors.
          SYDNEY'S Sunday Telegraph was breathless with joy. ''IT'LL BE WORTH DOUBLE'', its headline screamed. ''Sydney is on the verge of becoming a city of suburban property millionaires as house prices soar,'' it frothed, ''in many cases, doubling in value over the next 10 years.''
          In Perth, The Sunday Times was euphoric over similar predictions there. Here the Sunday Herald Sun was more restrained, but its figures showed a similar result. Even in Keilor, Reservoir and Upwey, median house prices in 2020 were forecast to reach $1.1 million.
          If that proves right - and these are just forecasts, done by Australian Property Monitors for the Murdoch tabloids, apparently assuming that past price trends continue for another decade - it would put home ownership out of reach for millions of younger and lower-income Australians. It would complete our transformation from a nation of home owners to one of landlords and tenants.
          But it won't happen. Melbourne house prices have trebled since 1997, not because our incomes trebled, but because we paid those prices by a massive increase in debt. In the 20 years to January 2010, household debt to the banks grew 10 times over, from $118 billion to $1224 billion. As a share of our disposable income, they more than trebled, from 45 per cent of what we earn to 156 per cent.
          If we want house prices to keep growing at that pace, we'll have to keep going deeper into debt at that pace - to more than $4 trillion by 2020, or more than three times our income. Any volunteers?
          Yes, house prices are now soaring at double-digit rates. Agents report 87 per cent auction clearance rates, with many properties sold well above their reserve price.
          But those projections are duds. We won't take on debt like that again. As I pointed out last week, it is an illusion to think that rising house prices increase our net wealth. For we buy in the same market that we sell in. Rising house prices mean we get more when we sell - but we pay more when we buy.
          If you are an aspiring first home buyer, rising house prices raise the bar and put home ownership out of reach. If you are upgrading to a better home, rising house prices widen the gap between what you get and what you pay. The only people who benefit from rising house prices are people downgrading to a smaller home - and investors.
          From 1995 to 2007, the Bureau of Statistics reports, home ownership among people aged 25 to 34 shrank from 52 per cent to 43 per cent. Among people aged 35 to 44, it shrank from 73 per cent to 65 per cent.
          Flinders University academics Joe Flood and Emma Baker have examined these trends from census data. Between 1986 and 2006, they report, home ownership in Melbourne among people aged 25 to 44 on middle incomes fell from 68 per cent to 57 per cent. In Sydney, the fall was even steeper: from 60 per cent to 45 per cent.
          House prices have soared because of a widening gap between supply and demand. The supply of new homes has barely grown in 40 years, averaging 154,500 over the '00s. Yet demand has soared, for two reasons. Population growth has doubled, to almost 500,000 a year. And 40 per cent of lending to people buying established homes now goes to investors.
          It wasn't always like that. Before Labor restored the tax break for negative gearing in 1987, investors took only 8 per cent of lending for established homes. Most of their borrowing was to build new homes, such as apartment blocks. And most landlords made a profit from renting.
          But not now. Tax Office figures show 1.1 million Australians declared negatively geared property investments in 2006-07. They claimed total losses of more than $10 billion, which probably cut their tax bills by about $4 billion. In effect, that $4 billion then falls on other taxpayers.
          What's the point of running a rental business that loses money? Because your losses - assuming they're real - are more than offset by the capital gain when you sell the property. And thanks to John Howard, you pay only half as much tax on capital gains as you pay on the income you earn from working.
          Few countries offer housing investors such a generous tax deal. In most, you can write off your losses against rental income, but not against income from other sources. That's what we need to do here, where the scale of negative gearing is now so massive that housing cannot become affordable to young and low-income buyers competing with so many richer, tax-subsided investors.
          Consider this: in the 13 years to 2006-07, landlords as a group went from declaring net profits of $399 million to net losses of $6.4 billion. Those reporting profits grew by 36,000. Those reporting losses grew by 594,000.
          The problem is not landlords: I've been one myself, and they will always have a vital role in supplying housing for those who lack the means to buy.
          The problem is our tax laws, which have overturned the proper balance between home owners and investors and have led 1.1 million people to become landlords who make losses in order to reap the tax gains. That flood of investors has upended the balance between supply and demand, driving up prices and denying millions the chance to own their own homes.
          You can see why the politicians don't want to touch it. But because it is so large, we can't make housing affordable until they do.
          Tim Colebatch is economics editor.

          Source: The Age

          Stern Hu pleads guilty to bribery charge: lawyer


          March 22, 2010 - 5:00PM
            Stern Hu... charged.
            Stern Hu... charged.
            Australian Rio Tinto executive Stern Hu, who has been detained for almost nine months in China, pleaded guilty today to charges of bribery in a Shanghai court, a lawyer involved in the case said.
            Hu and three Chinese employees of Rio were accused of taking bribes and violating commercial secrets.
            Hu was accused of receiving bribes of about 6 million yuan ($962,000), said lawyer Tao Wuping, who represents Liu Caikui, one of the Rio employees charged.
            Liu faced bribery charges involving about 3.7 million yuan, Tao said after the morning hearing in Shanghai. 
            The highly sensitive trial of the four Rio staff members has strained ties with Canberra and stoked concerns about doing business in China

            Keep investing in your own knowledge bank

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            Primary patience tested over Bateman's millions


            GREG HOFFMAN
            March 10, 2010

              Primary Health Care owns the nation's second-largest pathology business and a growing collection of medical centres. These should be good businesses, enjoying the twin tailwinds of an ageing population and growing healthcare expenditure.
              Yet Primary, when we first analysed it in detail in early May last year, failed to pass muster on two important points. First, it had an uncomfortably high debt level - $1.5bn, in fact. Second, our analysis revealed several aggressive accounting treatments; nothing illegal, just things that could have been couched more conservatively.
              But another more alarming red flag was about to surface.
              In early May the company undertook a large share placement of $315 million. Another occurred in September, infusing an additional $180 million of much-needed cash into the company. Both raisings helped reduce Primary's debt, which was fine as far as it went.
              Until I read the second page of September's two-page announcement, that is. It revealed that Primary's founder and managing director, Dr Edmund Bateman, “intends to sell down approximately 11.6 million shares ... in conjunction with the placement.”
              Bateman took more than $70 million off the table (the final placement price was $6.08 per share) - about 30% of his stake in the company. The timing proved fortuitous.
              Profit shock
              On 16 February, less than six months after the share sale at $6.08, Primary reported a half-year profit that fell well short of investor expectations. Primary's share price is now languishing close to $4.
              There's nothing necessarily wrong with sales such as Bateman's. Occasionally we get lucky, at other times less so. As with John Gay at Gunns, Bateman may have had his own reasons for cutting his stake. Given subsequent events, though, shareholders could be forgiven for feeling apprehensive about his behaviour.
              At the November annual meeting, Bateman revealed some disturbing news from the September quarter (bear in mind his share sale was announced on 15 September, towards the end of that period).
              “Reduction in the rate of GP bulk billing throughout Australia has already started to occur with a >1% reduction in the September 2009 quarter (the greatest fall in 6 years)”, the announcement said.
              Could Bateman have known about this at the time of the share sale? And if not, why not? Bateman is managing director after all.
              November a key month
              It then eventuated that, following Primary's introduction of co-payments, revenue in its key pathology business fell sharply in November.
              This was the month of the annual meeting and about six weeks after Bateman's share sale.
              Primary's 6,750 shareholders didn't find this out until February 16 when the official results were released. Cast in this light, shareholders could be forgiven for thinking twice about the timing of Bateman's September share sale.
              There are two immediate questions. Firstly, when did Bateman find out that Primary's profit performance was declining markedly? And secondly, if it wasn't until just before shareholders were told mid-last month, three months after the business started to suffer, why did it take so long?
              If this isn't a regulatory issue, then surely it must be a managerial one. Either way, it appears that Primary shareholders have an issue to grapple with.
              This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 282288).
              Greg Hoffman is research director of The Intelligent Investorwhich provides independent advice to sharemarket investors.