Kossan

Date announced 26/08/2010
Quarter 30/06/2010 Qtr 2
FYE 31/12/2010

STOCK Kossan
C0DE  7153 

Price $ 3.13 Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 5.02 Curr. DY 1.64%
LFY Div 5.13 DPO ratio 12%
ROE 24.8% PBT Margin 14.1% PAT Margin 11.7%

Rec. qRev 256495 q-q % chg -2% y-y% chq 30%
Rec qPbt 36253 q-q % chg -7% y-y% chq 116%
Rec. qEps 18.77 q-q % chg -1% y-y% chq 123%
ttm-Eps 62.38 q-q % chg 20% y-y% chq 70%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 7.00 Avg. L PE 5.00
Forecast High Pr 5.57 Forecast Low Pr 2.95 Recent Severe Low Pr 2.95
Current price is at Lower 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 93% Downside 7%
One Year Appreciation Potential 16% Avg. yield 3%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 19%

CPE/SPE 0.84 P/NTA 1.24 NTA 2.52 SPE 6.00 Rational Pr 3.74



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed Review (future acq): Filed Discard: Filed
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy Mid. 1/3 Maybe Upper 1/3 Sell

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr