myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Saturday, 8 September 2012

Is Tesco Turning?

By Tony Reading
September 7, 2012

LONDON -- It came out of the blue, slashing nearly a quarter off the share price. Tesco's (LSE: TSCO.L ) profit warning in January -- its first for 20 years -- divided investors between bulls who saw it as a temporary glitch and bears who saw more serious writing on the wall.

It wasn't just among private investors that opinions were sharply divided. Investment guru Warren Buffett rapidly upped his stake to over 5%. But high-yield fund management superstar Neil Woodford took a bearish view, selling out completely in April.

So how is Tesco faring now?

As far as the share price goes, there is little indication of recovery. At 338 pence, they are still 16% below their early-January high of 411 pence. But there is some indication they're slowly clawing their way back. They are up 6.5% from the post-profit-warning low, during which time the FTSE 100 has gone nowhere. Meanwhile, rival J Sainsbury has motored up 14%, and William Morrison has slipped 3%.

Hubris
Tesco's sin was one of hubris -- perhaps not surprising in the light of former CEO Terry Leahy's very long and successful tenure. It took its core U.K. grocery business for granted and neglected it in favor of exciting growth opportunities internationally and in nonfood businesses from out-of-town hypermarkets to banking.

Nemesis came when the U.K. shopper woke up to Tesco's poorer customer service and product offering, and its grocery market share slipped. Meanwhile, the new markets proved tough. Internationally, Tesco lacks the market power it has at home, hypermarkets found online competition tougher than was expected, and some new ventures such as second-hand cars were just a step too far.

Tesco's act of repentance, unveiled by new CEO Philip Clarke in April, was to refocus investment on the core U.K. grocery. Store expansion would be cut back, while more would be spent on refurbishing existing stores, improved staffing, and price promotions.

Trench warfare
Is it working? Competition in the U.K. grocery sector is rather like trench warfare. Tesco's market share is around the 30% level -- roughly double that of each of its big three rivals, Sainsbury, Morrison and Wal-Mart-owned Asda. A big push in sales translates into just a small increase in market share.

Tesco's market share has continued to slip all year, but recent figures hint at a turnaround. Measured over the 12 weeks to Aug. 5, its market share slipped marginally to 30.9%, but in the final four weeks of that period, it rose to 31.4%, according to data from Kantar Worldpanel. In those four weeks, sales grew 5.1%, ahead of Asda at 4.9%, Sainsbury at 2.7%, and Morrison at 1.4%. It's a very small sign, but as the company says, "Every little helps."

Not all are convinced. Asda hit out at Tesco's complex promotions, describing them as "basket bingo." ING's analysts have suggested that Tesco needs to make much deeper price cuts to stop customers switching to Asda. Meanwhile, Tesco's international business has its own headaches, with the U.S. stores still making losses and the business in Korea hit by government regulation.

So Tesco shareholders can expect to wait a while yet before the shares recover their previous levels. But Tesco has the market and financial power to claw its way back, and I remain a patient bull.

A good run
Sainsbury's share price has had a good run over the summer, matching its sales success over the period. Up 12% since June 1, they look a little expensive at 324 pence, but with tangible net assets of about 290 pence and a yield of 5%, they remain a good defensive investment.

Morrison makes a virtue of its slowness to act. It is only now rolling out a plan for a chain of convenience stores, long after Tesco and Sainsbury. Having eschewed hypermarkets, its chief executive has recently dismissed them as "a blip on the pages of retail history." And its adventures into nonfood retailing have been specifically confined to its acquisition of baby-goods retailer Kiddiecare.

Just why has Warren Buffett singled out Tesco as a rare foreign investment? You can delve into this question in this report from the Motley Fool: "The One U.K. Share That Warren Buffett Loves." It's free, and you can download it here.

Where is the U.K.'s leading dividend stock-picker investing today? The identities of Neil Woodford's favorite blue chips are revealed in this free Motley Fool report -- "8 Shares Held By Britain's Super Investor."

More investment opportunities:

http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2012/09/07/is-tesco-turning.aspx

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My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Saturday, 8 September 2012

Is Tesco Turning?

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All equity security investments present a risk of loss of capital

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Benjamin Graham

Sell the losers, let the winners run.

Investment Style

Warren Buffett

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