Guinness

Date announced 3-Nov-10
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 1
FYE 30/06/2011

STOCK GUINNESS
C0DE  3255 

Price $ 8.83 Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 16.20 Curr. DY 5.10%
LFY Div 45.00 DPO ratio 89%
ROE 32.2% PBT Margin 14.1% PAT Margin 10.6%

Rec. qRev 366631 q-q % chg 19% y-y% chq 22%
Rec qPbt 51638 q-q % chg 8% y-y% chq 44%
Rec. qEps 12.81 q-q % chg 8% y-y% chq 45%
ttm-Eps 54.50 q-q % chg 8% y-y% chq 36%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 14.00 Avg. L PE 12.00
Forecast High Pr 9.74 Forecast Low Pr 6.80 Recent Severe Low Pr 6.80
Current price is at Upper 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 31% Downside 69%
One Year Appreciation Potential 2% Avg. yield 7%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 9%

CPE/SPE 1.25 P/NTA 5.22 NTA 1.69 SPE 13.00 Rational Pr 7.09



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed Review (future acq): Filed Discard: Filed
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy Mid. 1/3 Maybe Upper 1/3 Sell

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr